Nate Silver News

Nate Silver's First 2024 Model: Trump Has 66% Chance of Winning, Not a Toss-Up
Authors
9
3 days
Politics
Trump Leads Biden in Arizona and National Polls, Gallego vs Lake in Arizona, DecisionDeskHQ Forecast Favors Trump
Authors
20
6 days
Arizona
World
Politics

Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?

Jun 27, 2:21 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

71.39%chance

14127884

OptionVotes

YES

1580

633

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.69%chance

8816357

OptionVotes

YES

1404

1203

Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver?

Jun 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.96%chance

161371

OptionVotes

YES

2003

499

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election?

Nov 13, 5:53 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

32.24%chance

14466

OptionVotes

YES

1044

965

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Jan 2, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.3%chance

323621

OptionVotes

YES

1277

879

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?

Oct 22, 10:02 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

84.84%chance

191043

OptionVotes

YES

1177

945

Will Nate Silver "Sell or license his 2024 election model to a third-party media company"?

Jan 9, 9:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.53%chance

6677

OptionVotes

YES

770

Will Nate Silver "Run a “low-fi" version of his 2024 election model here at Silver Bulletin"?

Jan 9, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.45%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

297

Will Nate Silver "Take his 2024 election model entirely private for one or more consulting clients"?

Jan 9, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.27%chance

5714

OptionVotes

YES

363

Will Nate Silver's default 2024 Senate model use expert ratings (be “Deluxe”)?

May 20, 8:37 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

16.17%chance

5139

OptionVotes

YES

202

Will Nate Silver win the third contest? Manifold will decide the answer. Manifold will decide the best funniest answer,

Jan 16, 10:31 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

6417

Risky Business (Nate Silver & Maria Konnikova podcast) prop bets

Jun 8, 10:57 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

5708

Latest stories

Nate Silver's First 2024 Model: Trump Has 66% Chance of Winning, Not a Toss-Up
Authors
9
3 days
Politics
Nate Silver Predicts Trump Victory Over Biden in Election Forecast with 65.7% to 33.7% Odds
Authors
8
4 days
Politics
Culture
Trump Leads Biden in Arizona and National Polls, Gallego vs Lake in Arizona, DecisionDeskHQ Forecast Favors Trump
Authors
20
6 days
Arizona
World
Politics
Nate Silver Suggests President Biden Drop Out Amid Record-Low Approval; Harris Leads in 2028 Poll
Authors
10
18 days
Politics
Biden's Approval Rating Hits All-Time Low of 37.4% on FiveThirtyEight
Authors
24
20 days
Politics
Mark Sanford Criticizes Nikki Haley; Nate Silver Recommends Shocking Move for Democrats
Authors
7
1 month
Politics
Poll: 13% of Biden's Former Voters Concerned About Foreign Policy and Gaza War, Nate Silver Highlights 14% Won't Support Biden Against Trump
Authors
5
2 months
Israel
Economics
World
Calls for 70-Year-Old Diabetic Justice Sotomayor to Retire Spark Debate
Authors
14
3 months
Crime
Politics
Culture
Nate Silver Calls to Shut Down Google AI Chatbot Gemini Over Pedophilia and Ethical Judgments
Authors
19
4 months
AI
Politics
Tech
Sander van der Linden Exposed as Fraud in Wikipedia Edit Scandal
Authors
4
4 months
Culture
Nate Silver Warns: Biden Campaign Faces Defeat Without Strategy
Authors
9
4 months
Culture
Andrew Rodgers Wins Card Player Poker Tour Main Event; Sepiol, Huang Finish in Top Positions
Authors
28
4 months
Poker
Sports
'Smoking Gun' Evidence Bolsters COVID Lab-Leak Theory; Origin Debate Flares
Authors
5
5 months
Politics
Real Wages Fall, Inflation Rises, and Anti-China Land Purchase Legislation Passed
Authors
23
6 months
China
World
Politics
Biden's 39% Approval Rating Amid Economic Woes, as 2024 Poll Reflects 'Nothing' vs 'Revenge'
Authors
12
6 months
Politics
Nate Silver Faces Criticism for His Approach to Journalism and Impact on Liberal Politics
Authors
5
6 months
Politics
Kamala Harris Struggles to Win Over Public, Faces Criticism in NYT Profile
Authors
6
9 months
Politics

Nate Silver News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Nate Silver

Prediction markets for Nate Silver

Prediction markets for Nate Silver

Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver?

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election?

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?

Will Nate Silver "Sell or license his 2024 election model to a third-party media company"?

Will Nate Silver "Run a “low-fi" version of his 2024 election model here at Silver Bulletin"?

Will Nate Silver "Take his 2024 election model entirely private for one or more consulting clients"?

Will Nate Silver's default 2024 Senate model use expert ratings (be “Deluxe”)?

Will Nate Silver win the third contest? Manifold will decide the answer. Manifold will decide the best funniest answer,

Risky Business (Nate Silver & Maria Konnikova podcast) prop bets

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Nate Silver

Prediction markets for Nate Silver

Prediction markets for Nate Silver

Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver?

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election?

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?

Will Nate Silver "Sell or license his 2024 election model to a third-party media company"?

Will Nate Silver "Run a “low-fi" version of his 2024 election model here at Silver Bulletin"?