Nate News

Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?

Jun 27, 2:21 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

64.85%chance

14227992

OptionVotes

YES

1358

736

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 7:12 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

63.69%chance

8816357

OptionVotes

YES

1404

1203

Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver?

Jun 10, 6:25 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

19.96%chance

161371

OptionVotes

YES

2003

499

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Apr 12, 8:49 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

34.04%chance

19700

OptionVotes

YES

1003

994

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election?

Nov 13, 5:53 PMDec 1, 7:59 AM

32.24%chance

14466

OptionVotes

YES

1044

965

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Jan 2, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

21.21%chance

333626

OptionVotes

YES

1282

878

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?

Oct 22, 10:02 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

84.84%chance

191043

OptionVotes

YES

1177

945

Will Nate Silver appear on the 538 Politics Podcast in 2024?

Dec 23, 2:01 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.64%chance

6130

OptionVotes

YES

218

Will Nate Silver "Sell or license his 2024 election model to a third-party media company"?

Jan 9, 9:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

3.53%chance

6677

OptionVotes

YES

770

Will Nate Silver "Run a “low-fi" version of his 2024 election model here at Silver Bulletin"?

Jan 9, 9:48 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

88.45%chance

6233

OptionVotes

YES

297

Will Nate Silver "Take his 2024 election model entirely private for one or more consulting clients"?

Jan 9, 9:49 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.27%chance

5714

OptionVotes

YES

363

Will Nate Silver's default 2024 Senate model use expert ratings (be “Deluxe”)?

May 20, 8:37 PMSep 1, 6:59 AM

16.17%chance

5139

OptionVotes

YES

202

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Nate News

Prediction markets for Nate

Prediction markets for Nate

Prediction markets for Nate

Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election?

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?

Will Nate Silver appear on the 538 Politics Podcast in 2024?

Will Nate Silver "Sell or license his 2024 election model to a third-party media company"?

Will Nate Silver "Run a “low-fi" version of his 2024 election model here at Silver Bulletin"?

Will Nate Silver "Take his 2024 election model entirely private for one or more consulting clients"?

Will Nate Silver's default 2024 Senate model use expert ratings (be “Deluxe”)?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Nate

Prediction markets for Nate

Prediction markets for Nate

Will Nate Silver’s model correctly predict the election?

Will Nate Silver create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will Manifest 2025 have someone more famous than Nate Silver?

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Will Nate Silver out-predict his forecast in the 2024 election?

Will Nate Silver place a bet on Manifold before the election?

Will Nate Silver's upcoming book make the NYT bestsellers list?