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Prediction markets for Nanda
Prediction markets for Nanda
WhiteBox Research will solve at least four of Neel Nanda's Concrete Open Problems by the end of September 2024.
Jun 20, 12:04 PM
Sep 30, 3:59 PM
53.47%
chance
3
117
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1072
933
Will Neel Nanda's or Lee Sharkey's SERI MATS streams (Summer 2023) produce a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication?
Jul 23, 9:01 PM
Dec 31, 11:30 AM
31.03%
chance
18
1500
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1069
902
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
Sep 18, 7:15 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
35.78%
chance
2
35
Option
Votes
YES
NO
115
70
Will Neel Nanda receive a Turing Prize by EOY 2050?
Nov 7, 8:46 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
15.3%
chance
4
270
Option
Votes
YES
NO
184
79
Conditional on an “FDA for AI” being established in the US, who will head it?
Oct 24, 11:54 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
19
2210
WhiteBox Research will get at least one fellow accepted into a ≥0.5 FTE AI safety research fellowship by EoY 2024.
Jun 20, 12:06 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
52.5%
chance
1
53
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1051
951
WhiteBox Research will have at least four fellows spending ≥10 h/wk on an alignment-oriented project by EoY 2024.
Jun 20, 12:08 PM
Dec 31, 3:59 PM
78.52%
chance
3
989
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1912
523
By 2025, percent of 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability solved?
Jul 20, 11:55 PM
Jan 1, 5:42 AM
30.45%
chance
7
153
Option
Votes
YES
NO
240
185
In 2025, category distribution for solved problems from the 200 Concrete Open Problems in Mechanistic Interpretability?
Jul 21, 2:18 AM
Jan 1, 5:32 PM
6
296
Articles
Latest stories
PM Modi Mourns Padma Bhushan Awardee Ved Prakash Nanda, University of Denver Professor
Authors
6
6 months
Politics
Actress Selma Archerd, Known for 'Die Hard' and 'Melrose Place', Dies at 98; Comedian Neel Nanda, 'Jimmy Kimmel Live' and Comedy Central, Dies at 32, Tributes Pour In
Authors
6
6 months
Culture
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