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Prediction markets for Moya
Prediction markets for Moya
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2030?
Feb 4, 8:20 AM
Jan 1, 10:59 PM
5
322
Which paper published in 2024 will Manifold consider to be the most important paper of the year when polled in 2025?
Feb 4, 8:17 AM
Jan 1, 1:55 PM
9
588
Will Manifold Markets still exist in a decade? (Jan 2, 2034)
Jan 2, 7:27 PM
Jan 3, 7:59 AM
57.63%
chance
21
1322
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1097
901
Will Elon Musk still own a social media company at the end of 2025?
Jan 2, 7:42 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
80.84%
chance
37
1957
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1174
931
Will Japan have a general AI company with a valuation of $1 bil+ primarily doing research inside of its borders by 2028?
Jan 2, 7:41 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
70.61%
chance
30
1724
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1246
818
Will a team consisting primarily of an ML model complete MIT Mystery Hunt by 2030?
Jan 2, 7:09 AM
Jan 29, 7:59 AM
12.77%
chance
16
907
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1370
884
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13
28 days
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4
7 months
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Authors
5
7 months
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Sports
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