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Prediction markets for Moon

Will a human land on the moon by 2028?

Feb 9, 6:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

21.3%chance

27235955

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4327

1052

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

26.48%chance

8353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

138

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2029?

Apr 9, 2:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

40.73%chance

12218295

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2382

848

Will CNSA / China land humans on the moon by the end of 2030?

Feb 28, 6:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.85%chance

6615131

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1409

787

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.34%chance

432211

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2244

1160

Will a human walk on the moon again before 2030?

Apr 9, 2:06 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

70.9%chance

21439916

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2227

1934

LLMs to the moon? (By 2030)

Dec 18, 4:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

47.54%chance

391199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1090

825

Will a human set foot on the moon whilst at least one human to have previously done so is still living?

Jul 5, 9:11 PMDec 31, 12:59 PM

72.16%chance

703068

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1195

1068

Will there be a Moon base by 2040?

Jun 24, 11:10 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

65.61%chance

352026

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1164

890

Will a human astronaut land on the moon before 2027 ?

Dec 29, 1:07 PMDec 31, 1:00 PM

4.81%chance

9622905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7719

768

Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?

Dec 31, 1:07 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

33.82%chance

664106

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1469

1040

Will 1M humanoid robots be manufactured before a human walks on the Moon again?

Mar 10, 12:26 PMMar 2, 10:59 PM

56.47%chance

10186

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1067

925

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