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Prediction markets for Method

In 2028, will any major hospital advertise the use of AI as the primary method of diagnosis of human patients?

Mar 10, 12:37 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

34.25%chance

704402

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1359

1248

Will the first AI to get IMO gold use formal methods?

Jan 11, 5:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53%chance

182159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1048

925

Alphafold involved in a SOTA C02 direct air capture method by mid 2026 ?

Jun 2, 8:33 PMJul 1, 9:59 PM

35.58%chance

5475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1345

743

Will NASA use atomic clocks on the moon as part of their initial timekeeping method?

Apr 22, 1:51 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

73.54%chance

18563

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1145

915

Will there be a genetic engineering method capable of changing an adult's chromosomal sex by 2100?

Jul 11, 11:35 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

47.63%chance

10150

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1019

973

Will AGI be interpretable due to CoT and reflection and similar methods?

Jul 1, 1:26 PMJun 20, 9:59 PM

21.36%chance

241172

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1268

847

Will scaling current methods be enough to eliminate LLM hallucination?

Feb 27, 11:31 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

16.43%chance

503058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1705

767

Will Twitter accept Bitcoin (BTC) as a method of payment by the end of 2024?

Dec 1, 2:03 PMDec 31, 4:59 AM

55%chance

488874

OptionVotes

NO

YES

959

917

Will NASA establish a standard time zone or timekeeping method for the moon by the end of 2026

Apr 22, 4:25 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

86.71%chance

21865

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1590

802

Is the two-hand method legitimate? (Permanent)

Nov 16, 2:29 AMOct 16, 10:59 PM

43.73%chance

13278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

986

Will Twitter accept Dogecoin (DOGE) as a method of payment before the end of 2024?

Jan 2, 5:32 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

12.63%chance

403617

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1505

851

Will virtual reality replace traditional schooling methods by 2030?

Jan 11, 12:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

8.11%chance

141737

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2308

783

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