Means News

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Dec 10, 1:35 PMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

22%chance

17559

OptionVotes

YES

992

979

Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months?

Jun 9, 6:20 PMOct 9, 8:59 PM

58.22%chance

696687

OptionVotes

YES

1180

847

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Feb 20, 6:13 AMFeb 28, 5:00 AM

74.04%chance

431885

OptionVotes

YES

996

992

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Jan 11, 11:56 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.65%chance

19587

OptionVotes

YES

1045

970

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Dec 30, 7:55 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

45.73%chance

12320

OptionVotes

YES

1002

994

Will Google Chrome's mean desktop market share in the second half of 2024 be at least 2% lower than in the first half?

Mar 17, 4:13 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.35%chance

15414

OptionVotes

YES

1077

946

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Dec 30, 7:46 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

82%chance

13287

OptionVotes

YES

1148

945

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:56 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

40.16%chance

12288

OptionVotes

YES

1009

991

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Dec 24, 7:50 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.6%chance

26801

OptionVotes

YES

1097

928

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Jul 11, 3:48 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

85.67%chance

11414

OptionVotes

YES

1233

919

Will the meaning of the phrase "among us" associated with the meme be largely forgotten by the end of 2024?

Apr 9, 6:45 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

12.53%chance

301731

OptionVotes

YES

1367

916

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Apr 3, 6:51 PMApr 3, 3:59 AM

14716

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Means News

Prediction markets for Means

Prediction markets for Means

Prediction markets for Means

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months?

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will Google Chrome's mean desktop market share in the second half of 2024 be at least 2% lower than in the first half?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?

Will the mean global temperature for every year from 2023 to 2027 be 1.1 to 1.8 degrees above the preindustrial average?

Will the meaning of the phrase "among us" associated with the meme be largely forgotten by the end of 2024?

On which continent will the next Pope to be born (meaning, as yet unborn) be born?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Means

Prediction markets for Means

Prediction markets for Means

Will >10 people committed to EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become billionaires (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will Israel free another living hostage by military means in the next 4 months?

Will an EA who had <$100M in Feb 28 2021 become a billionaire (in 2021 dollars) by Feb 28 2031, by means other than crypto or inheritance?

Will cryptocurrency replace a major Fiat currency as a primary means of transaction in any country by 2027?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2035? (Experimental market structure; 99% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will Google Chrome's mean desktop market share in the second half of 2024 be at least 2% lower than in the first half?

Will this market still exist at the beginning of 2026? (Experimental market structure; 90% displayed probability means 100% trader credence.)

Will the mean global near-surface temperature for 2023-2027 exceed 1.5℃ above the preindustrial average?

Will Aubrey de Grey's 2022 Robust Mouse Rejuvenation Project "succeed" in its aims of finding an intervention that increases both mean and maximum lifespan of mice by at least 12 months?