Marcus News

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.51%chance

26260438

OptionVotes

YES

2541

1886

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.44%chance

776134

OptionVotes

YES

1008

945

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

34.22%chance

858431

OptionVotes

YES

1833

1291

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92%chance

10442592

OptionVotes

YES

2568

1472

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.95%chance

625520

OptionVotes

YES

1528

726

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.83%chance

7424516

OptionVotes

YES

3220

964

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Apr 23, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.54%chance

294146

OptionVotes

YES

1719

527

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.63%chance

281969

OptionVotes

YES

1093

943

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

30%chance

353563

OptionVotes

YES

1007

925

[Spoiler Ch1111+] Will Saint Marcus Mars or other gorosei spare Kaku's life based on Rob Lucci's request?

Mar 21, 2:09 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

50%chance

181077

OptionVotes

YES

1031

947

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Dec 25, 9:09 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

90.52%chance

20392

OptionVotes

YES

1175

952

Will Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?

Jan 16, 9:22 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

20.94%chance

557

OptionVotes

YES

207

123

Latest stories

Rabbi Barry Marcus Returns £2.35M to Charities After NCA Probe
Authors
8
3 months
Britain
Crime
World
Larsa Pippen Splits from Marcus Jordan After 2 Years, Goes Bold at Perfume Party
Authors
11
3 months
Culture
Home Depot Founder Bernie Marcus Urges GOP Support for Trump's White House Bid
Authors
5
4 months
Politics
Boston Celtics' Marcus Smart Honored in TD Garden Return for Impact On and Off Court
Authors
8
5 months
NBA
Sports
Hockey Fights Cancer Night Observed at Bell Centre by Montreal Canadiens and Carolina Hurricanes
Authors
5
8 months
Hockey
Sports
94-Year-Old Home Depot Co-Founder Bernie Marcus Endorses Donald Trump for President
Authors
16
8 months
Politics
Marcus Jordan Wants Michael Jordan as Best Man at Wedding to Larsa Pippen Despite Disapproval
Authors
17
8 months
NBA
Sports

Marcus News

Prediction markets for Marcus

Prediction markets for Marcus

Prediction markets for Marcus

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

[Spoiler Ch1111+] Will Saint Marcus Mars or other gorosei spare Kaku's life based on Rob Lucci's request?

Will LLMs such as GPT-4 be seen as at most just a part of the solution to AGI? (Gary Marcus GPT-4 prediction #7)

Will Gary Marcus' legs be turned into paperclips (or similarly affected by AI) before he predicts AGI within 2.5 years?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Marcus

Prediction markets for Marcus

Prediction markets for Marcus

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?