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Prediction markets for Lot Long

Will the removal of mana loan make a lot of the long term market inaccurate?

Apr 15, 1:08 PM

180

Will there be a Manifold bot that makes profitable bets on random 1-month markets by December 2024? (Ṁ3,000 subsidy!)

Jan 2, 3:23 AMDec 2, 5:59 AM

61.2%chance

21512668

OptionVotes

NO

YES

5239

4210

Are the pronatalist couple good parents?

Jun 12, 8:06 PMJan 29, 4:59 AM

47.63%chance

262392

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1049

954

Will there exist an AI music generator at least as good as DALL-E 3 by the end of 2024?

Jan 26, 6:42 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

70.61%chance

16366505

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1765

1148

Will I become vegan/vegetarian/pescatarian before 2030?

Jun 2, 1:58 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

28.22%chance

13945

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1080

961

Will a woman be elected as the President of the United States before the end of 2040?

Apr 21, 6:37 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

67.29%chance

1357555

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2345

1820

By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?

Mar 22, 5:09 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

49.89%chance

383058

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1087

874

Will Eliezer Yudkowsky talk like a normal person before 2030?

Sep 24, 1:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

30.08%chance

341837

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

876

Will Earth be a utopia for humans in the year 2100?

Feb 1, 3:59 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

33.75%chance

383793

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1050

823

Sometime before 2031, AI is going to cross a generality threshold that allows for recursive self-improvement, and then FOOM to superhuman capability. Before that point humanity must solve AI safety or be helpless.

Dec 24, 3:53 AMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

26.4%chance

16782

OptionVotes

YES

NO

998

980

Will AI be able to create art in a "human-like way" within Photoshop, GIMP, or Paint.NET by the end of 2024?

Sep 23, 4:34 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

21.55%chance

11458

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

968

Prospera wins fight against Honduras

Sep 12, 2:17 PMMay 1, 8:59 PM

48%chance

251064

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1074

904

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Victorian Wiltshire Thatcher Lot Long Identified as Man on Led Zeppelin IV Cover 52 Years Later
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