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Prediction markets for Loni

Will GPT4/Opus report >50% score on ARC in 2024?

Jun 12, 12:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

64.85%chance

4819606

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1358

736

Will an LLM report >50% score on ARC in 2025?

Jun 12, 7:39 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.04%chance

133070

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1566

639

Will Bytedance be banned in the US by 2025?

Mar 17, 12:35 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

30.18%chance

211585

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1187

800

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Utah Senate Honors 20-Year-Old Deputy Emaloni Lutui for Heroic Ice Rescue
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5 months
Utah
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