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Leopold Aschenbrenner News
Prediction markets for Leopold Aschenbrenner
Prediction markets for Leopold Aschenbrenner
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
41.01%
chance
9
900
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1199
834
Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 25, 2:58 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1000
1000
Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 25, 2:58 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1000
1000
Will fanfic featuring Leopold Aschenbrenner building the death star exist by 2029
Jun 11, 7:56 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market
Apr 11, 11:52 PM
Jul 6, 3:59 AM
19
793
In 6 months, will it be confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Leopold Aschenbrenner are working on a project together?
May 15, 7:11 AM
Nov 15, 7:59 AM
23.06%
chance
6
465
Option
Votes
YES
NO
722
228
Will Leopold Aschenbrenner be sanctioned by the PRC by 2029
Jun 11, 7:57 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
16.21%
chance
2
130
Option
Votes
YES
NO
227
44
What will be true of the company Safe Superintelligence (SSI) by the end of 2025? (Add Answers)
Jun 19, 6:01 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
65
32627
Will we develop Leopold's 'drop-in remote AI workers' by end of 2027?
Jun 10, 7:37 PM
Dec 25, 4:59 AM
31.52%
chance
111
48616
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1474
678
$100B AI training cluster before 2029?
Jun 5, 12:50 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
54.76%
chance
23
4064
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1100
909
10GW AI training run before 2029?
Jun 10, 9:58 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50.3%
chance
9
1068
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1006
994
Will a tech company buy an aluminum smelting company before 2030?
Jun 5, 2:49 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
40.3%
chance
14
2598
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1217
822
Articles
Latest stories
Former OpenAI Researcher Predicts AGI by 2027 Amid Bidding War Concerns
Authors
13
27 days
China
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Former OpenAI Superalignment Team Member Leopold Aschenbrenner Alleges Firing Over Security Concerns
Authors
5
28 days
China
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OpenAI, Google DeepMind, Anthropic Employees Call for AI Whistleblower Protections Over Serious Risks
Authors
82
28 days
AI
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Former OpenAI Employees Raise Concerns Over AGI, Security Issues, and CCP
Authors
6
28 days
China
Economics
AI
OpenAI Fires Two, Including Aschenbrenner and Ilya's BFF, for Leaks
Authors
9
3 months
AI
Tech
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