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Prediction markets for Lean

Will philosophers accept or lean towards consequentialism once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.88%chance

697492

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1307

1043

Will the first AI to get IMO Gold integrate Lean?

Dec 11, 12:22 AMDec 15, 12:22 AM

41.49%chance

15583

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

928

Will this question lean towards NO by the end of 2024?

Dec 16, 11:01 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

49.61%chance

16267

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1018

979

Will philosophers accept or lean towards virtue ethics once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.47%chance

261790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1048

961

Will CNN's online news abandon its left-leaning bias by 2025 according to AllSides Media Bias ratings?

Nov 15, 5:58 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

22.75%chance

3812561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1590

742

Will philosophers accept or lean towards deontology once a consensus on normative ethics is reached?

Mar 17, 12:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

10.57%chance

161184

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1304

927

By 2030, will the academic community lean in favour of insecticide-treated bed nets having net-positive overall impact?

Jan 21, 6:47 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

88.6%chance

12261

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1177

952

Will Kevin Buzzard successfully formalize Fermat's Last Theorem in Lean within his 5 year grant?

Feb 14, 6:58 PMFeb 22, 6:29 PM

82.13%chance

10339

OptionVotes

NO

YES

446

95

Will the academic community lean in favour of Vladimir Putin having autism by 2030?

Feb 10, 2:28 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

21.31%chance

12212

OptionVotes

YES

NO

257

183

Will Lean mathlib have a definition of graph minors by the end of 2024?

Nov 8, 3:27 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

80.04%chance

5159

OptionVotes

NO

YES

255

63

Will Terence Tao write a paper with Lean code in it during the 2026 calendar year?

Oct 31, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

74.18%chance

876

OptionVotes

NO

YES

269

179

Will the Myhill–Nerode theorem be formalized in Lean mathlib by the end of 2024?

Feb 11, 9:08 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

89.4%chance

6254

OptionVotes

NO

YES

333

55

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