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Prediction markets for Leak

If Covid is a lab leak, which lab did it leak from?

Dec 30, 11:24 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13972

Scott Alexander is planning a COVID origins bet. If there is a debate, will judges conclude COVID came from a lab leak?

Apr 9, 1:33 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35%chance

126108302

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1207

1121

Covid a lab leak?

Sep 24, 12:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

53.37%chance

20943

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1030

970

Will Discord have a data leak affecting >1M users before end of 2024?

Sep 22, 12:39 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

25.21%chance

10177

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1084

954

Will Putin live to see Wikileaks post another leak?

Apr 20, 10:52 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.34%chance

11199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1082

951

Will MethaneSAT discover a major methane leak in 2024?

Mar 7, 8:16 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

70.24%chance

14180

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1076

952

Did the Dobbs v. Jackson leak come from the left?

May 4, 6:09 PMJun 4, 11:59 PM

74.68%chance

12454

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1186

916

Will Facebook have a data leak affecting more than 100M users during 2023 and 2024?

Sep 21, 7:28 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.98%chance

251524

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1113

915

Will a Manifold bot author accidentally leak their API key by the end of 2024?

Aug 23, 3:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

39.74%chance

11256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1010

970

Will someone have been fired from their job plausibly due to leaking information on Manifold Markets by 2030?

Jan 18, 11:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

62.93%chance

281279

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1093

915

Leaks or press releases that AIs are doing end to end AI research by 2026

May 19, 1:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

62.03%chance

17255

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1032

973

Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?

Mar 31, 12:45 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

13.79%chance

7332790

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2362

674

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Latest stories

Soap Actress Jennifer Leak Dies at 76 After Battle with Progressive Supranuclear Palsy
Authors
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3 months
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