Lanning News

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.72%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

170

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Jun 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.44%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

112

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Jan 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

Will Lan Dao reappear on Twitter by EOY 2024

Dec 11, 5:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.65%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.66%chance

714302247

OptionVotes

YES

21979

17194

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

48.33%chance

1026400812

OptionVotes

YES

4483

4198

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

38.02%chance

613183455

OptionVotes

YES

17741

10483

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

26232

3281

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76%chance

10537902

OptionVotes

YES

11105

2804

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

Jun 13, 6:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

6.32%chance

242439656

OptionVotes

YES

7830

576

Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?

Nov 11, 9:26 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

61.12%chance

95118751

OptionVotes

YES

1298

582

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Lanning News

Prediction markets for Lanning

Prediction markets for Lanning

Prediction markets for Lanning

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Will Lan Dao reappear on Twitter by EOY 2024

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Lanning

Prediction markets for Lanning

Prediction markets for Lanning

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Will Lan Dao reappear on Twitter by EOY 2024

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?