Lang News

(When) will Google's Carbon-lang be deprecated?

Jul 27, 12:37 PMJul 27, 9:59 PM

73.67%chance

11147

OptionVotes

YES

1088

951

Will Jesse Lang (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Apr 23, 2:08 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

20.94%chance

5109

OptionVotes

YES

189

102

Will Sonja Lang publish a new book by the end of February 2026?

Feb 26, 9:36 PMMar 1, 4:59 AM

73.8%chance

4178

OptionVotes

YES

282

112

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.11%chance

714302497

OptionVotes

YES

21793

17437

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50.16%chance

1035402179

OptionVotes

YES

4354

4322

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

36.73%chance

613183955

OptionVotes

YES

18228

10192

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

26232

3281

What names on Epstein‘s guest list will lead to indictment?

Feb 27, 6:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

2911975

Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Mar 25, 10:17 AMMay 7, 11:59 AM

451546

Who will deal the final blow against Kang in the MCU?

May 6, 5:29 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

51884

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.44%chance

776134

OptionVotes

YES

1008

945

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Mar 17, 5:57 PMOct 17, 10:59 PM

18.14%chance

6013411

OptionVotes

YES

1937

294

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Lang News

Prediction markets for Lang

Prediction markets for Lang

Prediction markets for Lang

(When) will Google's Carbon-lang be deprecated?

Will Jesse Lang (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will Sonja Lang publish a new book by the end of February 2026?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

What names on Epstein‘s guest list will lead to indictment?

Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?

Who will deal the final blow against Kang in the MCU?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Will AI be able to generate non-trivial, original codebase in a compiled language (C++, Java, ...) before 2025?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Lang

Prediction markets for Lang

Prediction markets for Lang

(When) will Google's Carbon-lang be deprecated?

Will Jesse Lang (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?

Will Sonja Lang publish a new book by the end of February 2026?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?