Lan News

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 11:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

17.72%chance

483

OptionVotes

YES

170

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Jun 8, 5:24 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

55.44%chance

323

OptionVotes

YES

112

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Sep 21, 8:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

479

OptionVotes

YES

111

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Jan 17, 12:14 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

61%chance

231

OptionVotes

YES

Will Lan Dao reappear on Twitter by EOY 2024

Dec 11, 5:08 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

38.65%chance

213

OptionVotes

YES

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

Feb 13, 4:17 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

50%chance

1038403426

OptionVotes

YES

4340

4336

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Sep 30, 5:54 PMFeb 1, 7:59 AM

43.11%chance

714302497

OptionVotes

YES

21793

17437

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

May 1, 9:58 AMDec 31, 1:29 PM

36.47%chance

614184055

OptionVotes

YES

18326

10136

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

Jun 7, 10:50 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

12.38%chance

6823983

OptionVotes

YES

26232

3281

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Jul 20, 8:26 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

76%chance

10537902

OptionVotes

YES

11105

2804

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

Jun 13, 6:46 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

6.32%chance

242439656

OptionVotes

YES

7830

576

Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?

Nov 11, 9:26 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

66.37%chance

97120875

OptionVotes

YES

1426

509

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Lan News

Prediction markets for Lan

Prediction markets for Lan

Prediction markets for Lan

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Will Lan Dao reappear on Twitter by EOY 2024

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?

Will there be an AI language model that strongly surpasses ChatGPT and other OpenAI models before the end of 2024?

Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?

[M5000 subsidy] Will 10,000+ people receive Lantern Bioworks' cavity prevention treatment by 2030?

Will Ukraine sever the land bridge between Crimea and Russia before 2025?

Will SpaceX land a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight, in 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Lan

Prediction markets for Lan

Prediction markets for Lan

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Elon Musk's kids by 2035?

Will openai or anthropic have a major LAN party (civ, factorio, EU4, sins of a solar empire) by EOY 2026

Will any of William Eden's kids have a LAN party with any of Bryan Caplan's kids by 2035?

Will William Eden's kids all have a LAN party (of any game) by EOY 2027?

Will Lan Dao reappear on Twitter by EOY 2024

Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by 2028?

By the end of 2026, will we have transparency into any useful internal pattern within a Large Language Model whose semantics would have been unfamiliar to AI and cognitive science in 2006?