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Prediction markets for Kurz

Will Ray Kurzweil win his 2029 Turing Test bet with Mitchell Kapor?

Feb 18, 8:14 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

53.36%chance

588061

OptionVotes

NO

YES

975

958

Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?

Apr 8, 7:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

54%chance

4726320

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1066

761

Will Kurzgesagt release a video specifically about the AI Alignment Problem before the end of 2024?

Mar 6, 8:03 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

62.78%chance

20920662

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3084

1406

By 2040 will we use Simulated Humans in Clinical Trials to accelerate drug development & approvals as Kurzweil Predicts?

Mar 8, 9:38 AMJan 1, 12:59 PM

31.62%chance

161196

OptionVotes

NO

YES

995

984

Will Ray Kurzweil live to see the singularity?

Mar 28, 2:54 AMApr 4, 10:59 AM

10.63%chance

603308

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2363

796

Will Kurzgesagt release a video on AI alignment before 1st of August, 2024?

Mar 30, 8:15 PMDec 31, 6:29 PM

28.98%chance

211107

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1616

572

Will Kurzgesagt's new Space Birds game be free to play?

Jun 10, 5:05 PMDec 31, 8:59 PM

11.53%chance

153475

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2770

361

Will Kurzgesagt mention Manifold, or link to Manifold in a video's description before 2025?

Apr 2, 9:39 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

13.15%chance

17456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1333

911

Will Ray Kurzweil die of natural causes?

Jan 19, 4:57 AMJan 1, 6:29 PM

84%chance

13370

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

976

Will I meet a new lover at Ray Kurzweil's funeral by 2040?

Feb 25, 4:36 AMMar 3, 5:59 AM

13.5%chance

121072

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1154

931

Ray Kurzweil's forthcoming and twice-delayed book "The Singularity is Nearer" will be mostly/entirely written by an AI

Mar 25, 4:45 PMDec 31, 6:59 PM

4.89%chance

181456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1961

849

Will Ray Kurzweil live to be a centenarian?

Oct 14, 11:52 PMFeb 13, 4:59 AM

4.73%chance

7904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

568

85

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Austrian Court Sentences Ex-Chancellor Kurz to Eight-Month Suspended Jail for Perjury in Parliamentary Inquiry
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