Knowles News

Michael Knowles' 5 big predictions for 2024

Jan 20, 12:00 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

886200

Which of these people will Destiny talk to before the end of 2024?

Mar 31, 10:56 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

5637427

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

Sep 20, 1:30 AMJan 2, 5:59 AM

10.13%chance

14945012

OptionVotes

YES

7301

2303

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Jun 1, 8:22 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.03%chance

17454

OptionVotes

YES

1217

928

Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?

Oct 10, 5:34 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

66.62%chance

191432

OptionVotes

YES

1004

986

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Mar 26, 12:52 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

24.2%chance

14191

OptionVotes

YES

1083

958

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Oct 20, 7:33 PMOct 21, 3:59 AM

65.67%chance

12278

OptionVotes

YES

1014

983

Will "The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Apr 1, 1:54 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

74.67%chance

14337

OptionVotes

YES

1118

840

Will AI benefit common knowledge?

Apr 13, 3:11 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

85.1%chance

15385

OptionVotes

YES

1182

941

Will the GPT-5 Knowledge Cutoff Date be in 2023?

Oct 2, 12:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

13.98%chance

11839

OptionVotes

YES

1325

883

Will "What Discovering Latent Knowledge Did and Did..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

May 20, 6:34 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

18.46%chance

OptionVotes

YES

1047

753

Will AI be capable of completing The Legend of Zelda (NES) with no prior knowledge by Sept. 21, 2024?

Sep 24, 5:28 PMSep 22, 3:59 AM

5.87%chance

263014

OptionVotes

YES

2124

828

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Knowles News

Prediction markets for Knowles

Prediction markets for Knowles

Prediction markets for Knowles

Michael Knowles' 5 big predictions for 2024

Which of these people will Destiny talk to before the end of 2024?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?

Will "The Best Tacit Knowledge Videos on Every Subject" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?

Will AI benefit common knowledge?

Will the GPT-5 Knowledge Cutoff Date be in 2023?

Will "What Discovering Latent Knowledge Did and Did..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Will AI be capable of completing The Legend of Zelda (NES) with no prior knowledge by Sept. 21, 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Knowles

Prediction markets for Knowles

Prediction markets for Knowles

Michael Knowles' 5 big predictions for 2024

Which of these people will Destiny talk to before the end of 2024?

Will it be public knowledge by EOY 2025 that a major AI lab believed to have created AGI internally before October 2023?

GPT-Zero: By 2030, will anyone develop an AI with a massive GPT-like knowledge base that it taught itself?

Will there be mass layoffs of knowledge workers as a direct result of AI by 2030?

Will my friends' kid ever be better at any knowledge-work than cutting-edge AI, by 2040?

Will Jacob Pfau think that the Eliciting Latent Knowledge research program has achieved something important by October 20, 2026?