Key News

Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election?

Mar 14, 12:13 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

57.75%chance

132351

OptionVotes

YES

1099

894

Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?

Dec 13, 4:29 PMNov 6, 4:59 AM

57.41%chance

5413296

OptionVotes

YES

1181

578

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

Mar 26, 7:52 PMMar 27, 6:59 AM

85.05%chance

949724

OptionVotes

YES

2225

110

We find out the identity (name and background) of the pilots who were involved in the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster

Mar 26, 5:17 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72%chance

13539

OptionVotes

YES

1105

929

By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?

Apr 3, 10:02 PMApr 11, 3:59 AM

26.58%chance

352043

OptionVotes

YES

1173

903

Will there be criminal charges in relation to the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse?

Apr 15, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

27.66%chance

20498

OptionVotes

YES

1172

903

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

Nov 3, 6:13 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

26.64%chance

231448

OptionVotes

YES

1156

901

[Humanoid Bots] Will the USA (or China) be the key player?

Mar 6, 10:42 AMJan 1, 3:59 PM

65.23%chance

14167

OptionVotes

YES

1058

960

Will a Manifold bot author accidentally leak their API key by the end of 2024?

Aug 23, 3:08 PMJan 1, 12:59 PM

39.74%chance

11256

OptionVotes

YES

1010

970

Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse?

Mar 26, 9:10 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

53.91%chance

401412

OptionVotes

YES

1071

883

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Mar 29, 3:08 PMMar 28, 3:59 AM

79.28%chance

351134

OptionVotes

YES

1540

761

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Feb 23, 5:28 PMJan 1, 2:59 AM

10%chance

15505

OptionVotes

YES

1046

971

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Key News

Prediction markets for Key

Prediction markets for Key

Prediction markets for Key

Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

We find out the identity (name and background) of the pilots who were involved in the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster

By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?

Will there be criminal charges in relation to the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse?

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?

[Humanoid Bots] Will the USA (or China) be the key player?

Will a Manifold bot author accidentally leak their API key by the end of 2024?

Will any new legislation be introduced as a result of the Key Bridge collapse?

Will a replacement bridge for Francis Scott Key Bridge in Baltimore be opened to traffic within 10 years of destruction?

Will Lula be a key actor in the peace between Ukraine and Russia?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Key

Prediction markets for Key

Prediction markets for Key

Will Allan Lichtman's "The Keys to the White House" correctly predict the outcome of the 2024 US Presidential election?

Will The Keys to the White House correctly predict the 2024 election?

Will Marc Andreessen be right that a replacement to the Francis Scott Key Bridge will not open before Mar 26 2027?

We find out the identity (name and background) of the pilots who were involved in the Francis Scott Key bridge disaster

By 2034, will most Americans leave the house with only their phones (no wallet or keys)?

Will there be criminal charges in relation to the Francis Scott Key bridge collapse?

Will any advanced AI chip fabs or their key supply chains be heavily physically damaged deliberately by 2028?