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Prediction markets for Jonny

Will a hardware AI device by Jonny Ive and OpenAI be released before 2025?

Sep 28, 5:28 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

14.23%chance

181032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1586

856

Which Artemis mission will Jonny Kim be selected for?

Jan 27, 11:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 PM

2131

Who will be the next person to land on the moon?

Feb 9, 4:47 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

11527

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025?

Feb 16, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.83%chance

34416789

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4654

1681

Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?

Feb 27, 5:52 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.16%chance

16384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

995

977

Will Bethesda publicly release Fallout V before 2031?

Feb 19, 12:55 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

69.01%chance

16551

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1075

737

Will the Vast Haven-1 successfully reach orbit atop any SpaceX rocket, at any point in 2030?

May 10, 11:38 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.19%chance

13448

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1099

940

Will Meta, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft invest in Conjecture before 2026?

Feb 4, 8:43 PMJan 1, 12:00 AM

35.7%chance

16414

OptionVotes

NO

YES

997

988

Will any space station have artificial gravity before 2031?

May 10, 11:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

36.95%chance

19527

OptionVotes

NO

YES

994

989

Will there be a manned commercial space station in orbit at the end of 2030?

May 10, 11:36 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

63.04%chance

11164

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1051

958

Will I successfully complete an Ironman triathlon before 2027?

Dec 17, 7:17 PMJan 17, 12:00 AM

56%chance

10171

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1013

973

Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?

Feb 19, 12:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.46%chance

443246

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1627

567

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