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Prediction markets for Joe Biden May

If Biden wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?

Mar 10, 12:21 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

45.61%chance

574129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

6020

5763

If Biden is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?

Mar 10, 5:16 AMNov 4, 4:59 AM

33.43%chance

569676

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7625

4309

Will there be a presidential debate between the Republican and Democratic nominees in the 2024 election cycle?

Feb 2, 3:50 PMNov 5, 5:59 AM

60.36%chance

608597

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1053

981

What 2+ word phrases will appear unbroken in a front-page NYT headline before 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]

Feb 28, 8:03 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

14635229

[Metaculus] Will President Joe Biden grant a pardon or commutation to Hunter Biden before January 21, 2025?

Jul 2, 6:28 PMJan 22, 5:00 PM

23.25%chance

255627

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1817

550

Will US Congress pass a bill in 2024 letting foreign governments tax US firms' digital-services profits?

Dec 1, 10:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.23%chance

3310201

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3317

838

Will a Democrat win the popular vote in ALL of the following presidential elections: 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040

Sep 12, 5:00 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

23.3%chance

18341

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1106

948

Will Xi Jinping ever be Time Person of the Year?

Aug 22, 10:56 PMAug 23, 3:59 AM

40.54%chance

13308

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1043

923

Will Biden's classified documents be largely forgotten on Election Day?

Mar 27, 8:00 PMNov 5, 4:59 AM

88.03%chance

13382

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1204

946

Will a federal prosecutor indict Trump for "insurrection" after the Supreme Court's ruling in the Colorado ballot case?

Mar 4, 4:18 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

10.23%chance

10495

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1385

891

Will the presidential nominees in the 2024 US presidential election be Donald Trump and Joe Biden?

Nov 11, 3:08 PMNov 19, 4:59 AM

50.32%chance

161954

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1213

150

Will Joe Biden appear on the 2024 General election ballot in Ohio?

Apr 7, 1:20 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

60%chance

213280

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1123

157

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