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Prediction markets for JA

Will a reliable and general household robot be developed before January 1st, 2030?

Apr 27, 7:21 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

35.33%chance

477155681

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13056

12751

Will Trump win the US election if he has been convicted of a crime in his January 6th Federal Trial? [10k Subsidy]

Feb 21, 5:55 PMNov 11, 7:59 AM

46.64%chance

12643113

OptionVotes

NO

YES

13174

8454

Will there be an assassination attempt on a CEO of a major AI lab by January 1, 2035?

Jun 2, 10:31 AMJan 1, 10:59 PM

38.79%chance

8810121

OptionVotes

YES

NO

11417

8973

Will SpaceX's Starship Superheavy launch vehicle reach 500 total successful launches by Jan 1st 2030?

Apr 25, 3:04 AMDec 31, 2:00 PM

26%chance

101196721

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1310

1083

Will Joe Biden pardon Hunter Biden before Jan 21, 2025?

Jun 11, 7:42 PMJan 22, 7:59 AM

11%chance

5384763

OptionVotes

YES

NO

23902

6548

Will GiveWell fund Attractive toxic sugar baits for malaria control by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:20 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

35.98%chance

256444

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7198

4144

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7416

3786

Will GiveWell fund Electronic partogram by 1st January 2027?

Dec 18, 12:54 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.05%chance

179854

OptionVotes

YES

NO

7126

3446

This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030

Apr 8, 4:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

97%chance

149559419

OptionVotes

NO

YES

7159

1294

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42.54%chance

144904

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4930

3665

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:09 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

40.56%chance

103923

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4999

3609

Will GiveWell fund Post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PMC) for children with severe anemia by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 6:26 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

39.59%chance

124930

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5204

3441

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