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Imagination News
Prediction markets for Imagination
Prediction markets for Imagination
Will a general molecular assembler, as imagined by Eric Drexler, be built before 2035?
Nov 2, 4:01 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
19.49%
chance
11
467
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1023
788
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
332
289820
Which album released in 2024 will be Manifold's favorite?
Mar 4, 5:26 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
11
422
Which songs will be covered for Joker: Folie à Deux?
Mar 22, 10:30 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
18
2201
Which of these mainstream artists (or bands) will credit an AI in a song release? (Kanye ft. Suno, or Drake ft. ChatGPT)
Apr 4, 1:27 PM
Apr 4, 1:30 PM
34
2336
Intuitions about Infinity
Jan 4, 2:31 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
28
870
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
39.04%
chance
127
26724
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1901
992
By 2030, will an organisation be manufacturing products in Earth orbit?
May 15, 1:19 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
60%
chance
119
20913
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1512
1333
Does eating snow dehydrate you?
Apr 10, 4:08 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
3.25%
chance
30
2811
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2024
872
9) Some of the hype and herd mentality behavior that shifted from crypto to AI in 2023 will shift back to crypto in 2024
Dec 25, 1:41 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
74.95%
chance
47
4111
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1306
862
Will Manifold do a crypto airdrop before Jan 1st, 2028?
Mar 26, 9:17 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
12.55%
chance
13
2500
Option
Votes
YES
NO
519
249
Will someone fly a banner with the word “Rationalussy” over the San Francisco Bay in 2024?
Jan 1, 3:55 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
11.6%
chance
24
3006
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1333
906
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