Holness News

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Aug 29, 5:06 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

80.21%chance

481496588

OptionVotes

YES

1126

1045

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?

Sep 13, 8:25 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.27%chance

564806492

OptionVotes

YES

4133

2575

Which theorem prover will have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by end of 2025?

Jun 16, 7:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

7932

Will Vivek Ramaswamy hold a position in the Trump White House?

Dec 27, 8:23 AMJan 21, 7:59 AM

82.58%chance

13215428

OptionVotes

YES

5297

861

Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024?

Dec 2, 4:48 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.86%chance

455783

OptionVotes

YES

4990

968

In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?

Dec 2, 6:38 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

24.25%chance

372133

OptionVotes

YES

2094

884

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Feb 21, 6:53 PMFeb 22, 5:59 AM

45.43%chance

8910968

OptionVotes

YES

1301

978

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Oct 6, 4:51 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

23.88%chance

485491

OptionVotes

YES

1016

964

Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2024?

Apr 15, 11:30 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

7.65%chance

7710187

OptionVotes

YES

4298

486

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Apr 21, 1:37 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

35.42%chance

703562

OptionVotes

YES

1214

1049

Will a medal-winning athlete hold up a Palestine flag on the podium during the 2024 Olympics?

Jun 2, 9:12 PMAug 11, 10:59 PM

68.16%chance

704222

OptionVotes

YES

1463

683

How many seats will Volt Europa hold in the EP after the 2024 elections?

Apr 11, 12:26 AMJul 16, 9:59 PM

1926005

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Holness News

Prediction markets for Holness

Prediction markets for Holness

Prediction markets for Holness

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?

Which theorem prover will have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by end of 2025?

Will Vivek Ramaswamy hold a position in the Trump White House?

Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024?

In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?

Will this Richard Hanania article on trans ideology hold up?

Will Ukraine hold a presidential election in 2024?

Will the State of Palestine hold a fair presidential election by 2030?

Will a medal-winning athlete hold up a Palestine flag on the podium during the 2024 Olympics?

How many seats will Volt Europa hold in the EP after the 2024 elections?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Holness

Prediction markets for Holness

Prediction markets for Holness

Will this Yudkowsky tweet hold up?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI video generation hold up in 2024?

Which theorem prover will have proved the most theorems on Freek's list by end of 2025?

Will Vivek Ramaswamy hold a position in the Trump White House?

Will the United States and Russia hold nuclear arms control talks in 2024?

In 2024, will the US and Iran hold talks to limit Iran's nuclear program--e.g., to revive or replace the JCPOA?

Will this Yudkowsky tweet on AI babysitters hold up by Feb 2028?