Search
News Chat
Login
Search
Top
For You
Business
Crypto
Culture
Environment
Politics
Science
Sports
Tech
Video Games
World
Holden News
Top stories
Thousands of Conservative Chairman Richard Holden's Campaign Leaflets Sent to Wrong Constituency
Authors
7
9 days
Britain
World
Politics
Prediction markets for Holden
Prediction markets for Holden
Will Holden Karnofsky create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?
Jan 9, 10:31 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
40.46%
chance
12
144
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1060
947
In 2040, will Holden Karnofsky think that donating Open Philanthropy's money so quickly was a tragic mistake?
Mar 4, 1:28 AM
Mar 11, 4:59 AM
15.64%
chance
22
709
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1004
970
Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 15, 5:20 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
2.46%
chance
8
620
Option
Votes
YES
NO
723
137
Which famous people will create a market in 2024?
Dec 12, 9:42 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
24
3050
[Add options] Who would be so good that Manifold would vote for them over themselves in a presidential election?
Jun 24, 7:15 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
6
96
[Megamarket] 80,000 Hours podcast in 2024 prop bets
Mar 8, 9:51 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
24
2348
Who will be guests on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2024?
Dec 24, 9:34 PM
Jan 1, 6:29 PM
58
36726
Will at least 25 nations collaborate to develop and enforce unified AI development standards internationally by 2035?
Jan 14, 1:10 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
77.65%
chance
73
12274
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1867
1140
Will Anthropic's RSP security commitments (as of Oct. 28 2023) cause them to pause scaling for at least one month?
Oct 29, 3:47 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
27.35%
chance
28
2107
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1110
945
Will advanced AI systems be found to have made money illegally via finding security exploits and/or getting unauthorized access to others' bank accounts by end of 2035?
Jan 14, 12:54 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
78.3%
chance
15
188
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1119
950
Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?
Jan 14, 12:51 AM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
49.8%
chance
5
13
Option
Votes
YES
NO
153
147
Articles
Latest stories
No stories found