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Prediction markets for His Excellence

How will Emily Freitag judge her 2024 predictions for U.S. K-12 education?

Jan 9, 10:47 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

211

2024 Oregon Department of Transportation Performance: How Will They Score on Tiered KPMs?

Apr 28, 6:37 AMOct 1, 6:59 AM

1120

Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2024?

Jan 8, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

45.99%chance

567215

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1211

680

Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2025?

Jan 8, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

84.14%chance

3218486

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1385

824

Will AI be able to fully generate excel-based, 3-statement financial valuation models on a public stock by end of 2026?

Jan 8, 10:14 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

85.09%chance

162845

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1122

937

Excel Esports [LOL stock]

Mar 17, 3:38 PMDec 16, 11:59 PM

30.77%chance

225

OptionVotes

YES

NO

95

53

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 4:49 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.03%chance

144070

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5697

3703

Will Llama 3-multimodal be natively mixed-multimodal? (VQ-VAE+next token prediction)

May 17, 6:00 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.59%chance

2200

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1008

992

Will there be a skyhook space structure placed in LEO before 2063?

May 28, 3:20 PMDec 31, 10:00 PM

70.38%chance

10149

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1039

976

Will air quality in Beijing be good in 2024?

Sep 19, 6:07 PMJan 16, 7:59 AM

29.59%chance

12494

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1060

959

Will the world become more secular in the next World Values Survey?

Sep 26, 5:33 PMMar 1, 7:59 AM

75.38%chance

22768

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1069

964

Will an AI model be used for operational weather forecasts by the end of 2024?

Jan 3, 4:43 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

66.28%chance

13236

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1041

973

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