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Prediction markets for Hel

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

Jan 13, 7:15 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.15%chance

12938324

OptionVotes

YES

NO

13328

9836

Will Manifold help me pivot my career by the end of 2024?

Jun 9, 7:00 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.55%chance

141360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

10098

9894

Who will accept the challenge by Rudyard Lynch (Whatifalthist) for a debate held by August 13, 2024?

May 21, 9:54 PMAug 14, 4:59 AM

2112181

Will Helion Energy deliver 50 MW of fusion-generated electricity to Microsoft before 2029?

May 10, 8:52 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

17.66%chance

414675

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3003

1084

Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?

Jun 21, 10:56 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

13.68%chance

121890

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2512

398

Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026

Dec 5, 6:41 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

29.49%chance

607372

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1191

994

Will there be another Manifest conference held in 2025?

Jun 6, 9:19 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

82.74%chance

494825

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2189

457

Will Helion Deliver 10 Megawatts of Fusion Power to Microsoft by 2029?

May 10, 7:44 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

16.98%chance

152084

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2636

1458

Will I think all AI hell broke loose in 2024?

Dec 26, 9:13 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

5.9%chance

15326534

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2384

1242

Will a UK General Election be held during Q4 2024?

Apr 5, 7:04 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

2.3%chance

8422129

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5829

103

A year from now, will Manifold think this prediction about the future of LLM's has held up?

Jun 26, 5:23 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

59.33%chance

9778

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1208

828

Will anyone associated with Helion be convicted of defrauding Helion investors by 2043?

May 16, 11:19 PMMay 18, 6:59 AM

15.14%chance

11234

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1139

954

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