Hanson News

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

May 24, 7:05 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

58.39%chance

4313

OptionVotes

YES

1185

844

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Jan 9, 6:40 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70.15%chance

302877

OptionVotes

YES

1049

960

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Mar 19, 3:37 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.57%chance

203843

OptionVotes

YES

1076

955

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Apr 16, 2:03 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

75.97%chance

24571

OptionVotes

YES

1022

851

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

May 24, 3:25 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

10.88%chance

102943

OptionVotes

YES

2863

349

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Jan 5, 7:04 PMJan 12, 10:59 PM

41.99%chance

13206

OptionVotes

YES

1019

981

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?

Mar 27, 5:02 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

13.41%chance

141161

OptionVotes

YES

1103

957

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

May 24, 2:22 AMJul 1, 6:59 AM

5.57%chance

53160

OptionVotes

YES

4119

243

Will a financial instrument similar to Robin Hanson's Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance be available before 2025?

Mar 30, 3:22 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

9.54%chance

161003

OptionVotes

YES

1448

903

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Feb 18, 9:12 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

95.45%chance

401392

OptionVotes

YES

1867

916

Will "Yudkowsky vs Hanson on FOOM: Whose Prediction..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Mar 14, 10:00 PMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will Robin Hanson have ridden a batmobile, laid an egg, and made Joker run away by 2030?

Sep 11, 12:37 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

8.17%chance

5194

OptionVotes

YES

263

Latest stories

NFL RedZone's Scott Hanson Prevents TikToker from Exploiting Car Crash, Earns Praise for Intervention
Authors
7
20 days
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Pauline Hanson Wears Israeli Scarf in Senate, Criticizes Pro-Palestinian Protests
Authors
4
2 months
Israel
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Career Criminal Jailed in UK's First Private Police Prosecution
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12
2 months
Britain
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Greens Deputy Leader Faruqi Sues Hanson for $150,000 Over Racist Tweet
Authors
9
2 months
Australia
Crime
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Journalist Apologizes to Senator Over 'Rapist' Remark; Court Hears Allegations of Racist Comments, Psychological Trauma, and Health Impacts
Authors
10
2 months
Australia
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Hanson Faces Racism Accusations in 'Faruqi v Hanson' Court Case
Authors
10
2 months
Australia
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50-Year-Old Hanson Man First in Massachusetts Indicted on Federal Dogfighting Charges
Authors
8
3 months
Boston
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Hanson Man John D. Murphy Arrested with 8 Dogs Seized, Pleads Not Guilty to 9 Counts
Authors
10
3 months
Boston
Politics
Australia's Digital ID Bill Passed Without Debate, Sparks Outrage
Authors
4
3 months
Politics
Pauline Hanson Calls for Immigration Halt in Australia Amid Influx of Migrants and City Congestion
Authors
4
3 months
Australia
World
Greens and Nationals Propose Bill to Limit Coles and Woolworths' Market Power
Authors
4
3 months
Australia
World
Jets re-sign OL Jake Hanson, who started 4 games last season, restructure LB C.J. Mosley's contract
Authors
4
4 months
NFL
Sports
Memphis TV Anchor Amanda Hanson Dies at 38 from Medical Complications
Authors
5
5 months
Culture
NFL Concludes 2023 RedZone with Scott Hanson; Awaits 2024 on NFL Plus Premium
Authors
5
6 months
NFL
Sports
New York Jets OL Jacob Hanson Ruled Out with Concussion
Authors
4
6 months
NFL
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Bargain Hunt Star Charles Hanson, 45, Charged with Assault and Coercive Behavior
Authors
10
6 months
Britain
World
'Bargain Hunt' Star Faces Multiple Assault Charges; Bygraves' Mansion Listed at £5.5M
Authors
8
6 months
Britain
World
NFL RedZone Studio in Southern California Evacuated During Live Broadcast, Host Scott Hanson Continues Calmly Amid Emergency Alarm
Authors
13
7 months
Sports
NFL RedZone Host Scott Hanson Hailed as Hero Amid NFL Network Building Fire
Authors
6
7 months
NFL
Sports
Victor Davis Hanson Warns of Potential 2024 Election Outcomes, Trump's Victory Terrifies America
Authors
6
7 months
Culture

Hanson News

Prediction markets for Hanson

Prediction markets for Hanson

Prediction markets for Hanson

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028

Will a financial instrument similar to Robin Hanson's Robots-Took-Most-Jobs Insurance be available before 2025?

Will I win my bet with Robin Hanson about AGI coming before ems?

Will "Yudkowsky vs Hanson on FOOM: Whose Prediction..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Will Robin Hanson have ridden a batmobile, laid an egg, and made Joker run away by 2030?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Hanson

Prediction markets for Hanson

Prediction markets for Hanson

Conditional on writing an application, would I get an EV grant/fellowship to make Robin Hanson's policy wiki idea real?

Will Robin Hanson create a market on Manifold by end of 2027?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2026?

Will an AI generate a blog post indistinguishable from Robin Hanson's writing if tested before 2030?

Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2038

Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?

Will Robin Hanson stop blogging by 2025?