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Prediction markets for Hands

Will an American Astronaut and a Chinese Taikonaut shake hands on the surface of the moon before 2035?

Apr 29, 12:24 AMDec 31, 4:05 PM

26.48%chance

8353

OptionVotes

NO

YES

142

138

Will Kamala Harris and the Republican Vice Presidential nominee shake hands at a Vice Presidential debate in 2024?

Jun 26, 2:40 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

58.68%chance

141103

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1192

839

Elon Musk shakes Mark Zuckerberg’s hand by 2030

Feb 14, 4:40 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

72.86%chance

18197

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1078

958

Elon Musk shakes Jeff Bezos hand by 2030

Feb 14, 4:39 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

55.33%chance

10110

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1031

967

Will Paul Christiano shake the US president's hand by 2027

Nov 2, 9:26 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

36.17%chance

262165

OptionVotes

YES

NO

999

978

Elon Musk shakes Donald Trump’s hand by 2030

Feb 14, 4:42 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

69.26%chance

19796

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1143

910

Is the two-hand method legitimate? (Permanent)

Nov 16, 2:29 AMOct 16, 10:59 PM

43.73%chance

13278

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1006

986

[Metaculus] Will Trump and Biden shake hands in any of their debates?

Jun 3, 1:26 PMNov 7, 5:00 PM

9.01%chance

527745

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3177

315

Will Biden and Trump shake hands on camera in 2024?

Feb 1, 11:12 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.77%chance

321661

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1346

786

Will drawing AIs like DALL-E be able to draw convicing hands 9 times out of 10 before the end of 2024?

Mar 5, 12:33 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

93.24%chance

415140

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2686

704

When will Javier Milei publicly shake hands with Lula da Silva?

Nov 23, 12:07 PMJan 1, 3:59 AM

81048

Will "the Trump camp overplay their hand with the mugshot"?

Aug 27, 10:26 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.54%chance

556

OptionVotes

YES

NO

136

62

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Tory Chair Approves £10,000 Salary Top-Up for Deputy Amid Internal Tensions
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