Gary News

'The Crown' Actress Meg Bellamy Opens Up About Online Abuse Targeting Kate Middleton
Authors
9
6 days
Britain
World

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

Feb 20, 10:38 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

43.51%chance

26260438

OptionVotes

YES

2541

1886

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

Sep 16, 8:43 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

67.44%chance

776134

OptionVotes

YES

1008

945

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

Sep 16, 8:37 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

36.39%chance

838331

OptionVotes

YES

1736

1344

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Sep 16, 8:34 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92%chance

10442592

OptionVotes

YES

2568

1472

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

Sep 16, 8:47 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

38.95%chance

625520

OptionVotes

YES

1528

726

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Sep 16, 8:33 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

92.83%chance

7424516

OptionVotes

YES

3220

964

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Apr 23, 8:25 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

73.54%chance

294146

OptionVotes

YES

1719

527

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Sep 16, 9:19 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

81.63%chance

281969

OptionVotes

YES

1093

943

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Jan 23, 8:50 PMJan 1, 6:00 AM

30%chance

353563

OptionVotes

YES

1007

925

Does Gary Wang get >4 years sentence?

Dec 13, 12:55 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.97%chance

141673

OptionVotes

YES

978

942

Will SBF get a longer sentence than Caroline + Gary + Nishad?

Nov 10, 5:19 PMJul 1, 6:59 AM

79.5%chance

182601

OptionVotes

YES

1078

963

Does Gary Wang get >=1 years sentence?

Dec 13, 1:21 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

83.71%chance

161368

OptionVotes

YES

1233

894

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Gary News

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Prediction markets for Gary

Prediction markets for Gary

Prediction markets for Gary

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?

Gary Marcus prediction: physical reasoning of AI systems will improve before psychological reasoning

Does Gary Wang get >4 years sentence?

Will SBF get a longer sentence than Caroline + Gary + Nishad?

Does Gary Wang get >=1 years sentence?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Gary

Prediction markets for Gary

Prediction markets for Gary

In 2028, will Gary Marcus still be able to get LLMs to make egregious errors?

In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)

In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)

By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)

Will AIs stay below 1453 elo in 2024 on chat.lmsys.org/?leaderboard as predicted by Gary Marcus?

Will at least 3 of the Gary Marcus benchmark questions resolve YES?