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Top stories

DeSantis Signs Bills on Antisemitism, Jewish School Security, and Balloon Releases
Authors
5
6 days
Israel
Florida
World

Prediction markets for Fine

[100x Fine] Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2025?

Sep 11, 2:45 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

3.5%chance

68584940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

19532

10508

Will things basically be fine regarding job loss and unemployment due to AI in the next several years?

Nov 11, 7:37 AMNov 18, 7:59 AM

59.08%chance

211332

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1193

553

Will Oceangate face more than $1M fines, settlements and judgements as a result of the submersible incident?

Jun 20, 11:02 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

69.87%chance

17940

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1023

896

End of pre-training era for language models: Will an LM fine-tune for more FLOPs than it is pre-trained for, before 2026

May 5, 11:06 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

21.87%chance

19917

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1246

894

Will any agent perform better on Minecraft (or comparable open world game) after being fine-tuned on a manual by 2027?

Jul 11, 7:56 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

71.82%chance

131256

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1267

823

Capitalism and liberal democracy are going to be doing fine (or well) in 2030

Jan 6, 6:03 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

78.39%chance

361489

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1024

788

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2026?

Mar 10, 8:38 PMJun 1, 6:29 AM

49.94%chance

351933

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1109

818

Will we have a popular LLM fine-tuned on people's personal texts by June 1, 2025?

Mar 10, 8:36 PMJun 1, 6:29 AM

31.58%chance

302032

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1290

759

When will a language model be fine-tuned via self-play or expert iteration and achieve significant performance increase?

Dec 17, 4:47 PMJan 1, 4:47 PM

12.92%chance

14272

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

976

🗜️ Will GPT-4 (or GPT-4o) fine-tuning be publicly available before July?

Mar 8, 6:45 PMJul 2, 3:59 AM

1.57%chance

169470

OptionVotes

YES

NO

8959

425

Who will first be fined under the Digital Markets Act?

Feb 16, 6:59 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30807

Will "LoRA Fine-tuning Efficiently Undoes Safety Tr..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?

Mar 21, 10:01 AMFeb 1, 12:00 AM

14%chance

00

OptionVotes

NO

YES

100

100

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