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Prediction markets for Felony

What will Trump's sentence for his hush money felony convictions include?

May 30, 9:51 PMJul 31, 10:59 PM

354112316

Elon Musk convicted of a felony before 2026

Oct 5, 11:50 AMDec 31, 4:01 PM

8.29%chance

11418692

OptionVotes

YES

NO

4039

1404

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2026?

Mar 31, 9:48 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

66.99%chance

17630

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1034

892

Will Johnny Lyu (CEO of KuCoin) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 3, 12:58 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

32.67%chance

101161

OptionVotes

NO

YES

996

955

Will David Sacks be found to have committed a felony before 2030?

Mar 12, 3:14 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

25.89%chance

121293

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1014

980

Will any Manifold staff member or moderator be arrested/punished for a misdemeanor or felony before 2025?

Nov 12, 6:07 AMDec 31, 3:59 PM

31.47%chance

293697

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1077

941

Will someone be arrested for a felony offense committed in the name of AI safety in the US before 2030?

Mar 31, 9:54 PMJan 1, 8:00 AM

77.88%chance

11195

OptionVotes

NO

YES

999

987

Will Trump be convicted of any more felonies or federal crimes after the New York case, and before Election Day?

Jun 2, 6:10 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

15.96%chance

393233

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2295

436

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of December 2026?

Dec 16, 2:30 AMJan 2, 4:59 AM

39.59%chance

221223

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1129

876

Will Ye West (Kanye West) be charged of any felony crime before 2030?

Nov 16, 2:36 AMJan 1, 5:00 AM

18.37%chance

20874

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

968

Conditional on Republican trifecta: will prescribing abortion pills be a US federal felony at the end of February 2025?

Dec 16, 2:24 AMMar 2, 7:59 AM

15.53%chance

14688

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1208

927

Will Elon Musk be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

Dec 2, 5:03 AMDec 31, 5:00 AM

13.79%chance

363906

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1330

914

Articles

Latest stories

Felony Charles Bennett Faces Joe Penafiel in Bareknuckle MMA in Orlando; Penafiel Wins by TKO Rd 3, Extending Bennett's 21-Fight Losing Streak
Authors
5
4 months
UFC
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