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Elis News
Prediction markets for Elis
Prediction markets for Elis
UK General Election: Which party will win Ely and East Cambridgeshire?
Jan 4, 2:40 PM
Jul 4, 10:59 PM
7
133
Will Eli Lilly's new weight loss drug Zepbound sell >$2B in the US by 2025? (first full year on the market)
Nov 13, 5:34 AM
Feb 16, 4:59 AM
72.12%
chance
4
80
Option
Votes
NO
YES
153
85
Will Elie Hassenfeld (Co-Founder and CEO of GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Jan 23, 2:26 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
2.74%
chance
12
1155
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1617
939
Will ""Heretical Thoughts on AI" by Eli Dourado" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2023 Annual Review?
Mar 30, 7:19 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
12.72%
chance
1
10
Option
Votes
YES
NO
130
118
Of the companies which are currently #11-20 in market cap, will any be larger than Eli Lilly (#10) at the end of 2024?
Dec 25, 2:44 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
64.36%
chance
4
177
Option
Votes
NO
YES
70
63
Will Eli Weinstein, previously pardoned by Trump, go to prison for fraud again by 2026?
Jul 20, 7:51 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
63.82%
chance
3
51
Option
Votes
NO
YES
109
76
Will David A. Ricks (CEO of Eli Lilly) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Mar 29, 2:02 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
8.47%
chance
5
191
Option
Votes
YES
NO
272
92
Eli Jang stocks
May 4, 12:25 AM
May 4, 3:59 AM
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
50
50
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
Jul 21, 6:56 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
84%
chance
424
3108385
Option
Votes
YES
NO
3273
887
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
Mar 14, 8:29 PM
Jan 1, 8:00 AM
60%
chance
181
21792
Option
Votes
YES
NO
2412
1287
What will be the largest company in the world by market cap at the start of 2030
Oct 14, 3:23 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
133
41710
Who will I next go on 3 dates with?
Feb 14, 6:59 PM
Aug 12, 6:59 PM
13
2049
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