Dry News

Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030?

Jan 7, 9:29 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

15.42%chance

10922

OptionVotes

YES

1290

902

Is copper-substituted lead apatite a dry-ice-temperature superconductor at 1atm?

Jan 4, 12:20 PMMay 5, 9:59 PM

3.22%chance

51043

OptionVotes

YES

632

In what decade will the Pacific Northwest become as dry as California

Oct 17, 6:02 PMOct 25, 6:59 AM

8413

Will Blackstone have the largest est. dry powder of any private fund manager by the end of 2026?

Dec 9, 8:00 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

49.32%chance

853

OptionVotes

YES

192

186

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Feb 13, 8:04 AMDec 31, 11:00 PM

70.09%chance

38165595

OptionVotes

YES

11743

6690

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Mar 31, 6:42 PMJul 6, 6:59 PM

333291509

Will we able to buy a robot in 2035 in Italy for less than 50k € that can do the following:

Apr 13, 7:31 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

18680

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?

Apr 4, 8:35 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

65.43%chance

9811726

OptionVotes

YES

2528

1892

Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2024?

Feb 22, 12:39 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

11.33%chance

15734560

OptionVotes

YES

4929

613

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Mar 28, 2:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

26.34%chance

432211

OptionVotes

YES

2244

1160

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Nov 2, 7:43 PMDec 2, 5:59 AM

26.03%chance

798420

OptionVotes

YES

1325

842

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)? [Ṁ1500 subsidy]

Oct 3, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

29.76%chance

342458

OptionVotes

YES

2177

2119

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Dry News

Prediction markets for Dry

Prediction markets for Dry

Prediction markets for Dry

Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030?

Is copper-substituted lead apatite a dry-ice-temperature superconductor at 1atm?

In what decade will the Pacific Northwest become as dry as California

Will Blackstone have the largest est. dry powder of any private fund manager by the end of 2026?

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Will we able to buy a robot in 2035 in Italy for less than 50k € that can do the following:

Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?

Will I be able to order a self-driving taxi without a steering wheel by end of 2024?

Will there be a permanent bar, pub, or other drinking establishment on the Moon by 2050?

Will most self-driving cars in 2029 use LIDAR?

Will autonomous driving rideshares exceed human-driven rideshares by the start of 2030 (in the US)? [Ṁ1500 subsidy]

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Dry

Prediction markets for Dry

Prediction markets for Dry

Will the Great Salt Lake dry up by 2030?

Is copper-substituted lead apatite a dry-ice-temperature superconductor at 1atm?

In what decade will the Pacific Northwest become as dry as California

Will Blackstone have the largest est. dry powder of any private fund manager by the end of 2026?

Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?

Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?

Will we able to buy a robot in 2035 in Italy for less than 50k € that can do the following: