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Prediction markets for Denys

Will I be denied entry to the USA or Canada before the end of 2024?

Oct 11, 8:23 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.9%chance

14367

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1041

973

Will Donald Trump deny that he suffers from syphilis before the 2024 election?

Jan 19, 12:53 AMNov 6, 4:59 AM

25%chance

312360

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1161

896

Will Lockheed Martin deny that it was in possession of UFOs before the end of 2024?

Dec 11, 12:15 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

19.38%chance

13433

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1067

968

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny some entities)

Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

81.57%chance

141214

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1119

953

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all, secret or no new licenses)

Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

19.04%chance

111540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1065

970

Will Denis Villeneuve’s next film be related to Dune?

Mar 11, 7:59 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

70%chance

444631

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1439

640

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny ≥100 countries)

Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

23.11%chance

112907

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1611

719

Will Trump publicly deny the 2024 election results if he loses?

Mar 3, 4:02 AMFeb 5, 12:59 PM

83.68%chance

231840

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1023

954

Will Denis Villeneuve release at least three Dune movies by 2030?

Apr 5, 11:52 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

91.83%chance

232703

OptionVotes

NO

YES

2336

756

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)

Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

17.62%chance

8147

OptionVotes

YES

NO

315

144

Will the US restrict use of generative AI via API before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow some local licensing)

Jun 5, 1:12 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

6.81%chance

8905

OptionVotes

YES

NO

581

91

Will the US restrict transfer of trained AI models before 2026? (Deny all non-US, allow US or int'l licensing)

Jun 5, 1:10 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

30.71%chance

9185

OptionVotes

YES

NO

147

116

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