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David Wells News
Prediction markets for David Wells
Prediction markets for David Wells
will @Flowers have a verified user badge by the end of 2024?
Jun 26, 9:48 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
43.79%
chance
5
301
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1133
883
Will I be laid off before the start of 2025?
Jun 17, 8:06 PM
Jan 1, 8:59 PM
22.55%
chance
21
1431
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1853
540
Will multiple credible sources claim GPT-5 is sentient?
May 15, 7:20 AM
Jan 1, 5:59 AM
13.48%
chance
18
944
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1690
836
Will a robot be capable of sculpting marble at the level of world-class sculptors before 2040?
Apr 21, 9:09 AM
Jan 1, 8:01 AM
60.01%
chance
10
242
Option
Votes
NO
YES
996
993
Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2025?
Nov 5, 4:17 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
13%
chance
8
326
Option
Votes
YES
NO
242
90
Will Sen. Robert Casey (D-Pa) defeat challenger David McCormick (R-Pa) in the Pennsylvania Senate race (November 2024)?
Oct 16, 5:13 PM
Nov 6, 4:59 AM
70%
chance
6
51
Option
Votes
NO
YES
193
125
What soft forks will Bitcoin Core support before 2026?
Dec 18, 3:33 PM
Jan 1, 9:59 AM
4
545
Which Wikipedia articles currently below 100k+ monthly page views will surpass 200k+ page views in a month before 2026?
Apr 28, 8:54 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
6
102
Will David Chalmers publicly endorse physicalism about consciousness by 2030?
Nov 5, 4:17 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
21.35%
chance
7
111
Option
Votes
YES
NO
385
241
Recommend me podcasts about the future
Apr 17, 6:52 PM
0
0
How might Manifold become “markets for reputation”?
Jan 15, 6:41 PM
0
0
Do you agree with the attached article's argument on job loss and AI?
Apr 7, 12:55 PM
25
0
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