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Prediction markets for Creator

Will the Manifold Creator Partner Program be seen as unsuccessful by EOY 2024?

Feb 28, 6:24 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

40.08%chance

484004

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2086

1831

Will the creators of any iteration of AlphaFold win a Nobel Prize before 2030?

Oct 3, 10:01 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

49.28%chance

714986

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1680

1317

Will Manifold allow market creators to noticeably prohibit themselves from trading on their own markets?

Jan 8, 8:30 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

72.88%chance

362368

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1008

973

Will Manifold either disallow taking orders via the API on sports questions, or enable creators to disallow that?

Dec 2, 2:09 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.44%chance

312146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1363

1038

Will Manifold hire a professional market creator by the end of 2025?

Sep 1, 1:12 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

27.13%chance

13345

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1038

977

Will Ammon Lam (@AmmonLam) be the Top Creator before 2025?

Feb 6, 9:49 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

31.59%chance

13694

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1042

972

If a market creator who is well-known in the real world resolves a market in a way that they believe to be correct, but Manifold admins believe to be incorrect, will they treat that market differently from the markets of non-famous users?

Dec 15, 1:31 AMJan 1, 8:00 AM

31.49%chance

12146

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1054

966

Will I be on the "Top traders" leaderboard before the "Top creators" one?

Mar 3, 5:23 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

24.54%chance

14859

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1137

921

Will 50%+ of the Top Creators on the Manifold leaderboard by end of 2025 have 20K or more followers on their Twitter accounts?

Jan 26, 3:44 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

21.01%chance

10167

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1099

957

Will Skibidi Toilet reach 100 full episodes (by the creator's numbering) by EOY 2024?

Dec 24, 7:25 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

18.77%chance

16671

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1439

842

Will Manifold visually distinguish markets where the creator has/has not traded (in 2024)

Jan 1, 3:30 AMDec 31, 7:47 PM

29.54%chance

182887

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1430

721

Will Manifold natively facilitate micro-payments from market creators to users that trade on their markets by end of 2024?

Feb 16, 1:12 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

16.4%chance

12413

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1055

973

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