Chance News

No Wave Icon James Chance Dies at 71 in New York
Authors
7
10 days
Obituary
Culture

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

Aug 10, 1:51 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

49.26%chance

9222

OptionVotes

YES

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

Feb 20, 10:42 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

78.7%chance

22329036

OptionVotes

YES

3130

1759

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

Nov 16, 2:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

71.81%chance

19851

OptionVotes

YES

1746

1218

<60% Chance of Biden as Democratic Nominee before August?

Jun 30, 1:30 AMAug 1, 9:59 PM

50%chance

10774

OptionVotes

YES

1000

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

Dec 13, 10:59 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

86.36%chance

211515

OptionVotes

YES

1426

1234

<50% Chance of Biden as Democratic Nominee before the Democratic National Convention?

Jun 30, 1:36 AMAug 19, 9:59 PM

35.94%chance

5365

OptionVotes

YES

1335

749

Will I spend a significant amount of time on creating chances for Yudkowsky to get a prestigious prize in literature (or find someone who’ll do that)?

Feb 3, 2:46 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

24.55%chance

10231

OptionVotes

YES

1074

960

Does any eating window reduce chance of cancer related death?

Mar 24, 1:48 AMSep 16, 4:59 AM

49.32%chance

18386

OptionVotes

YES

1044

943

Is there at least 90% chance that there is a Hamas command tunnel under U.N. Gaza headquarters?

Feb 10, 10:40 PMDec 31, 9:59 PM

47.92%chance

14374

OptionVotes

YES

1059

914

On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year

Nov 27, 11:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

80.7%chance

13409

OptionVotes

YES

986

982

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Dec 2, 5:23 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

42%chance

291594

OptionVotes

YES

1029

974

Does Intermittent Fasting increase chance of cardiovascular death?

Mar 24, 1:31 AMFeb 7, 8:07 PM

10.54%chance

251012

OptionVotes

YES

1540

850

Latest stories

No Wave Icon James Chance Dies at 71 in New York
Authors
7
10 days
Obituary
Culture
Diddy Missing Daughters' Prom and Graduation Amid Legal Battle in Miami, King Combs at Chance's Graduation Dinner
Authors
7
1 month
Culture
UCF, Nebraska, Vanderbilt, and Mississippi State Secure Wins in Season Openers
Authors
12
5 months
NCAA
Sports

Chance News

Top stories

Prediction markets for Chance

Prediction markets for Chance

Prediction markets for Chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

<60% Chance of Biden as Democratic Nominee before August?

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.

<50% Chance of Biden as Democratic Nominee before the Democratic National Convention?

Will I spend a significant amount of time on creating chances for Yudkowsky to get a prestigious prize in literature (or find someone who’ll do that)?

Does any eating window reduce chance of cancer related death?

Is there at least 90% chance that there is a Hamas command tunnel under U.N. Gaza headquarters?

On resolution, will I think cash transfers to poor people have significant long-term improvements in Subjective Well Being? 10% chance to resolve each year

By the end of 2026, John Wentworth still believes that "The Plan" has a better than 50/50 chance of working before the singularity.

Does Intermittent Fasting increase chance of cardiovascular death?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for Chance

Prediction markets for Chance

Prediction markets for Chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2030

In 2028, will an AI be able to play randomly-selected computer games at human level, given the chance to train via self-play?

When this market closes, will I believe that healthcare should be free at the point of use? (This market has a 10% chance of closing each year)

<60% Chance of Biden as Democratic Nominee before August?

At close, what % of the Manifold users will think that GiveWell's work before 2023 was net positive? Resolves in 100 years, but has .1% chance to resolve each year. Vote Yes to increase %.