Byrne News

"Boat Owners Only" sign - correct interpretation? at Morro Bay, CA

Nov 25, 8:46 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

131366

Who will be the next Premier of Tasmania?

Apr 12, 10:49 PMApr 13, 1:59 PM

4513

Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?

Apr 30, 7:35 PMJan 2, 5:59 AM

77.93%chance

15940365

OptionVotes

YES

21958

9287

Will Taylor Swift endorse a US Presidential candidate for the 2024 election?

Jan 29, 8:51 PMNov 6, 5:59 AM

57.29%chance

27738339

OptionVotes

YES

2271

1333

Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses?

Sep 27, 5:23 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

20.23%chance

484933

OptionVotes

YES

2675

659

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:36 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

48.74%chance

162332

OptionVotes

YES

1632

839

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Sep 13, 3:36 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

70.25%chance

10193

OptionVotes

YES

1033

973

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Apr 18, 7:05 AMOct 20, 9:59 PM

34.55%chance

18981

OptionVotes

YES

1007

942

Will Tassilo Think Singular Learning Theory Isn’t Useful for Alignment by the End of 2024?

Aug 15, 8:41 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54%chance

12886

OptionVotes

YES

1135

863

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 1:15 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

30.63%chance

181787

OptionVotes

YES

1118

919

Will a politically conservative tenured academic in the US step down or be stripped of tenure in 2024 over plagiarism?

Jan 4, 1:26 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

39.78%chance

13261

OptionVotes

YES

1138

890

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Oct 20, 12:55 PMOct 20, 9:59 PM

27%chance

286189

OptionVotes

YES

1543

647

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Byrne News

Prediction markets for Byrne

Prediction markets for Byrne

Prediction markets for Byrne

"Boat Owners Only" sign - correct interpretation? at Morro Bay, CA

Who will be the next Premier of Tasmania?

Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?

Will Taylor Swift endorse a US Presidential candidate for the 2024 election?

Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?

Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will Tassilo Think Singular Learning Theory Isn’t Useful for Alignment by the End of 2024?

Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will a politically conservative tenured academic in the US step down or be stripped of tenure in 2024 over plagiarism?

Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Byrne

Prediction markets for Byrne

Prediction markets for Byrne

"Boat Owners Only" sign - correct interpretation? at Morro Bay, CA

Who will be the next Premier of Tasmania?

Will the five most valuable members of the S&P 500 be more than 21% of the index's value in 2025?

Will Taylor Swift endorse a US Presidential candidate for the 2024 election?

Will Amazon announce plans to spin off one or more businesses?

Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?

Will a study performed by the Dog Aging Project show a statistically significant effect of rapamycin on lifespan extension between control groups and a treatment group?