Brea News

Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?

Nov 2, 7:35 PMNov 2, 11:59 PM

3.26%chance

501047290

OptionVotes

YES

1433

934

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Aug 23, 6:24 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

27.67%chance

707676

OptionVotes

YES

7325

3825

Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)

Mar 26, 2:33 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

18.31%chance

26983504

OptionVotes

YES

5632

1116

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Jul 13, 1:03 AMDec 31, 8:00 AM

70%chance

5012544

OptionVotes

YES

1079

954

Will Nvidia's share price break $200 in 2024?

Apr 24, 11:41 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30%chance

16085330

OptionVotes

YES

1040

772

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Feb 20, 10:31 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

27.3%chance

27030469

OptionVotes

YES

2740

2379

Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025

Mar 28, 10:32 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

37.71%chance

10718457

OptionVotes

YES

1620

1254

Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?

Dec 15, 12:39 AMJan 2, 6:29 PM

41.17%chance

321194

OptionVotes

YES

1196

794

Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]

Jan 12, 3:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.49%chance

474952

OptionVotes

YES

1507

853

Will there be a game that relies heavily on using LLMs during gameplay that would break 1 million sales before 2025?

Mar 4, 8:35 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

15.21%chance

749101

OptionVotes

YES

2500

427

Will Manifold break 2000 engaged users by the end of 2024?

Jun 22, 4:47 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

51%chance

495511

OptionVotes

YES

1020

980

Will someone break the single-season sack record in 2024?

Jun 4, 5:45 PMJan 9, 4:59 AM

28.98%chance

10407

OptionVotes

YES

1057

964

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Brea News

Prediction markets for Brea

Prediction markets for Brea

Prediction markets for Brea

Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Will Nvidia's share price break $200 in 2024?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025

Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2024 be AI-related?

Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]

Will there be a game that relies heavily on using LLMs during gameplay that would break 1 million sales before 2025?

Will Manifold break 2000 engaged users by the end of 2024?

Will someone break the single-season sack record in 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Brea

Prediction markets for Brea

Prediction markets for Brea

Will a quantum computer break AES256 encryption in the next 12 month?

Will GiveWell recommend a grant to support breastfeeding promotion before 2027?

Will OpenAI + an AI alignment organization announce a major breakthrough in AI alignment? (2024)

Will any fusion reactor project demonstrate engineering breakeven before the end of 2040?

Will Nvidia's share price break $200 in 2024?

By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?

Neural Nets will generate at least 1 scientific breakthrough or novel theorem by the end of 2025