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Prediction markets for Bjorn

Who will be on an episode of Conversations with Tyler in 2024?

Dec 5, 8:02 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

3013342

Will US life expectancy recover from its 2020-2021 "Covid" drop to exceed its 2019 level by 2029?

Oct 24, 3:48 AMDec 31, 2:59 PM

66.42%chance

317616

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1001

984

If AGI is achieved, will it be able to consistently and reliably connect printers within 6 months?

Feb 25, 1:33 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

60.03%chance

32461

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1029

942

Will violent crime rates increase in the USA in 2023? (based on NCVS)

Jan 1, 12:54 PMDec 31, 2:59 PM

20.1%chance

12493

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1228

897

What percentage of Manifold users will consider themselves "woke" on Nov 1, 2024?

Apr 25, 8:34 PMSep 2, 11:59 PM

24.39%chance

13540

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1359

845

Will the FDA approve a fully autonomous robotic surgery device before 2030?

Oct 24, 3:32 AMDec 31, 3:01 PM

21%chance

10384

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1063

957

Will Xi Jinping visit the US in 2024?

Nov 15, 2:00 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.25%chance

12462

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1270

904

Will a train derailment in the US cause evacuation of a municipality of more than 1000 people before 2025?

Aug 17, 3:42 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

16.83%chance

323063

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1676

696

Will 1024-bit RSA be broken by a quantum computer by 2025?

Jun 29, 11:47 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

3.43%chance

262560

OptionVotes

YES

NO

2806

858

Will there be any executive criminal liability for March 2023 banking failures?

Mar 14, 1:33 AMMar 14, 2:59 PM

6%chance

7456

OptionVotes

YES

NO

559

103

Will Xi Jinping voluntarily leave any of his offices before 2035?

Nov 17, 4:08 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

73.87%chance

240

OptionVotes

NO

YES

130

67

Will Xi Jinping voluntarily leave any of his offices before 2029?

Nov 17, 4:00 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

31.24%chance

130

OptionVotes

YES

NO

100

50

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