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Top stories
Mr. Beast Co-Host Kris Tyson, Ava, Faces Backlash After Transition
Authors
4
7 days
Social
Celebrities
Tech
Prediction markets for Ava
Prediction markets for Ava
Will good quality personalised AI novels be instantly and cheaply available by the end of 2027?
Jun 27, 3:49 PM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
39.04%
chance
127
26724
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1901
992
Will at least 10 world cities have a generally available self-driving taxi service by 2025?
Feb 13, 8:04 AM
Dec 31, 11:00 PM
70.09%
chance
381
65595
Option
Votes
YES
NO
11743
6690
Good Tweet or Bad Tweet? Which controversial posts will Manifold think are a "Good Take" this week?
Mar 31, 6:42 PM
Jul 6, 6:59 PM
333
289835
What will be the name of my 1st female child?
Nov 24, 11:59 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
6
1429
Who will appear in "Avengers: Secret Wars"?
Mar 25, 10:17 AM
May 7, 11:59 AM
45
1546
[Metaculus] Will an LLM at least on the scale of GPT-4 be widely available for download before January 1st, 2025?
Oct 4, 3:03 PM
Jan 2, 8:00 PM
89%
chance
17
1855
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1330
915
In which year will Artificial General Rationalussy become available?
Oct 14, 9:19 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
13
3805
In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?
Feb 17, 4:36 AM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
78.5%
chance
177
11333
Option
Votes
NO
YES
4575
1526
Will fully autonomous (level 5) self-driving cars be available in a major city before 2030?
Apr 4, 8:35 PM
Jan 1, 7:59 AM
65.43%
chance
98
11726
Option
Votes
NO
YES
2528
1892
GPT4 or better model available for download by EOY 2024?
Sep 15, 2:28 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
94.54%
chance
126
42484
Option
Votes
NO
YES
8744
484
In 2028, will a publicly available AI be able to generate a full high-quality film to a prompt?
Jul 10, 6:56 PM
Jan 2, 7:59 AM
22.26%
chance
18
2157
Option
Votes
NO
YES
977
970
Will vegan pizza be commonly available at one of the big four pizza chains in the US by the end of 2024?
Sep 20, 8:53 PM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
7.59%
chance
211
69566
Option
Votes
YES
NO
5154
171
Articles
Latest stories
Mr. Beast Co-Host Kris Tyson, Ava, Faces Backlash After Transition
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8
3 months
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6
5 months
Culture
ABC Releases Trailer for 'Abbott Elementary' Season 3, Premiering February 7 on ABC
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11
5 months
Culture
@Ava DuVernay's 'Origin' Drama Adaptation Discussed on SundanceTV Jan 7th
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4
6 months
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Phillies Tap Bryce Harper to Woo Yoshinobu Yamamoto; Trevor Milton Sentenced to 4 Years in Prison, Fined $1M; Las Vegas Police Praise Ava
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35
7 months
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