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Asch News
Prediction markets for Asch
Prediction markets for Asch
Leopold Aschenbrenner makes no public statements of consequence for a 2-year period before 2035
Jun 10, 1:57 PM
Jan 1, 3:59 PM
41.01%
chance
9
900
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1199
834
Will "Response to Aschenbrenner's "Situational Awar..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 7, 12:32 PM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
22.43%
chance
3
150
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1084
610
Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 25, 2:58 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1000
1000
Will "On Dwarksh’s Podcast with Leopold Aschenbrenner" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2024 Annual Review?
Jun 25, 2:58 AM
Feb 1, 12:00 AM
14%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1000
1000
Will fanfic featuring Leopold Aschenbrenner building the death star exist by 2029
Jun 11, 7:56 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
50%
chance
0
0
Option
Votes
NO
YES
100
100
Will Leopold Aschenbrenner be sanctioned by the PRC by 2029
Jun 11, 7:57 AM
Jan 1, 4:59 AM
16.21%
chance
2
130
Option
Votes
YES
NO
227
44
Will Storm Ascher (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Apr 20, 1:42 AM
Dec 31, 11:59 PM
17.7%
chance
7
134
Option
Votes
YES
NO
285
151
In 6 months, will it be confirmed that Ilya Sutskever and Leopold Aschenbrenner are working on a project together?
May 15, 7:11 AM
Nov 15, 7:59 AM
23.06%
chance
6
465
Option
Votes
YES
NO
722
228
Leopold Aschenbrenner firing from OpenAI market
Apr 11, 11:52 PM
Jul 6, 3:59 AM
19
793
Articles
Latest stories
Former OpenAI Employee Leopold Asch Warns of AI Security Risks to CCP
Authors
7
29 days
China
AI
World
Leopold Asch Warns of AI Security Risks, US-China Superintelligence Arms Race, and First Strike Threat
Authors
4
30 days
China
AI
World
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