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Prediction markets for Allison
Prediction markets for Allison
The first human brain upload able to remember a password will occur by ... ?
Nov 5, 11:49 PM
Nov 23, 10:59 PM
23
1799
Will we detect extraterrestrial intelligent life in the universe by 2124?
Nov 14, 8:26 PM
Nov 15, 7:59 AM
35.33%
chance
76
6531
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1080
804
Will one person currently alive reach longevity escape velocity?
Nov 14, 7:25 PM
Nov 23, 7:59 AM
69.2%
chance
43
2354
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1072
943
AGI will more likely resemble a multipolar than a singleton scenario.
Nov 14, 8:51 PM
Nov 22, 7:59 AM
64.47%
chance
16
466
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1082
936
Will space debris pose a serious risk to our human future in space?
Nov 14, 8:25 PM
Nov 22, 7:59 AM
37.66%
chance
21
923
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1070
918
Will human intelligence solve aging before AGI does?
Nov 14, 7:26 PM
Nov 22, 7:59 AM
10.98%
chance
13
516
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1231
941
Will medicine master head transplants in the next 10 years?
Nov 14, 7:29 PM
Nov 22, 7:59 AM
5.03%
chance
15
1462
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1642
909
When will a large-scale geoengineering intervention cause an international dispute?
Nov 14, 8:00 PM
Nov 23, 7:59 AM
10
378
A multipolar AGI scenario is safer than a singleton AGI scenario
Nov 14, 9:02 PM
Nov 23, 7:59 AM
29.84%
chance
5
49
Option
Votes
YES
NO
167
107
What alternative term for ‘eucatastrophe’ do you prefer?
Dec 1, 5:36 PM
Nov 9, 7:59 AM
16
783
A nuclear fusion reactor consistently achieves break-even energy output (Q = 1) over a 30-day period by...?
Nov 6, 12:04 AM
Nov 22, 10:59 PM
21
951
Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ?
Nov 5, 5:48 PM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
51
2191
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8
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8 months
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