Akin News

Will a supply chain attack akin to the xz backdoor targeting developer toolchains be discovered before 2025?

Apr 4, 3:40 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

28.58%chance

19835

OptionVotes

YES

998

942

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Sep 28, 11:56 PMJan 2, 2:59 AM

78.97%chance

11171

OptionVotes

YES

1120

947

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

Mar 20, 9:24 PMJan 2, 6:59 AM

65.9%chance

12286

OptionVotes

YES

1067

956

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030

Mar 27, 10:06 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

9.79%chance

5313

OptionVotes

YES

369

Will text-to-PDF techniques or LLM models be able to do something akin to deductive/inductive reasoning by end of 2024?

Jan 1, 7:22 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

57.12%chance

329

OptionVotes

YES

100

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Dec 31, 10:36 AMDec 31, 10:59 PM

89%chance

971014650

OptionVotes

YES

1091

998

Are any insects sentient?

Apr 7, 11:49 PMJan 31, 11:59 PM

66.64%chance

516397

OptionVotes

YES

1130

904

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025?

Feb 16, 11:12 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

5.83%chance

34416789

OptionVotes

YES

4654

1681

Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?

Jan 13, 6:14 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.92%chance

14769

OptionVotes

YES

1128

617

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Feb 18, 12:31 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

30.19%chance

25437

OptionVotes

YES

1028

978

Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?

Jan 5, 1:24 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

29.59%chance

311516

OptionVotes

YES

1069

950

Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?

Nov 26, 8:21 PMJan 2, 4:59 AM

38.4%chance

10290

OptionVotes

YES

1005

981

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Akin News

Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Will a supply chain attack akin to the xz backdoor targeting developer toolchains be discovered before 2025?

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts *everyone's* freedom by 2030

Will text-to-PDF techniques or LLM models be able to do something akin to deductive/inductive reasoning by end of 2024?

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Are any insects sentient?

Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025?

Will a candidate that is neither backed by the Republican Party or the Democratic Party run in the 2024 United States presidential election and receive at least 5% of the national popular vote?

By 2045, will it be possible to experience collective consciousness through shared cognitive technology?

Will Vladimir Putin die before the end of the war on Ukraine?

Will I understand a causal decision theorist/frequentist/libertarian free will believer before the end of 2024?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Prediction markets for Akin

Will a supply chain attack akin to the xz backdoor targeting developer toolchains be discovered before 2025?

Will any LLM be able to consistently play Akinator correctly as the user by 2028?

Will a serious incident caused by AI happen that causes a severe public backlash (akin to Nuclear Fission) by 2040?

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts *everyone's* freedom by 2030

Will text-to-PDF techniques or LLM models be able to do something akin to deductive/inductive reasoning by end of 2024?

Will sleep be needed to live and function by 2040?

Are any insects sentient?

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030

AGI risk will force something akin to "divine intervention" that temporarily restricts everyone's freedom by 2030