AD News

Will Space’s timecube ad lead to >1 month of attic stay?

Jun 8, 1:15 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

50.53%chance

3110

OptionVotes

YES

10106

9895

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Apr 6, 9:52 AMJan 1, 9:59 PM

42.25%chance

845295

OptionVotes

YES

1814

847

Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]

Jan 12, 3:20 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

67.49%chance

474952

OptionVotes

YES

1507

853

Will a new dimension be added to Minecraft in 1.22 or 1.23?

Jun 1, 7:46 AMOct 1, 8:59 PM

14.16%chance

233030

OptionVotes

YES

2462

406

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Apr 6, 2:21 PMJan 1, 9:59 PM

65.93%chance

735987

OptionVotes

YES

1288

951

Will the word "Rizz" be added to the OED online dictionary in 2024

Jan 1, 3:25 AMDec 31, 12:59 PM

38.51%chance

193692

OptionVotes

YES

1211

817

Will the “Nebraska Right to Abortion Initiative” be added to the Nebraska constitution?

Jun 9, 4:22 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

49.35%chance

12521

OptionVotes

YES

1013

987

ChatGPT allows advertisers to influence results or place ads before Jan 2026

Nov 10, 10:16 PMDec 31, 3:59 PM

29.31%chance

13270

OptionVotes

YES

1057

969

Within 2 months of Manifold adding cash prizes, the number of daily active users will more than double.

Apr 27, 5:01 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

30.8%chance

361688

OptionVotes

YES

1016

877

Will Google suffer significant consequences over violating its ads standards around opt-out?

Jun 28, 10:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

21231

OptionVotes

YES

1019

986

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Jan 17, 5:54 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

31.02%chance

20488

OptionVotes

YES

1082

941

Will Sora or its successors be used to create an ad for Super Bowl LIX?

Feb 16, 1:12 AMFeb 11, 4:59 AM

25.26%chance

231485

OptionVotes

YES

1025

968

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AD News

Prediction markets for AD

Prediction markets for AD

Prediction markets for AD

Will Space’s timecube ad lead to >1 month of attic stay?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]

Will a new dimension be added to Minecraft in 1.22 or 1.23?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Will the word "Rizz" be added to the OED online dictionary in 2024

Will the “Nebraska Right to Abortion Initiative” be added to the Nebraska constitution?

ChatGPT allows advertisers to influence results or place ads before Jan 2026

Within 2 months of Manifold adding cash prizes, the number of daily active users will more than double.

Will Google suffer significant consequences over violating its ads standards around opt-out?

Does the GDPR Ban Ad Fraud Detection?

Will Sora or its successors be used to create an ad for Super Bowl LIX?

Latest stories

Prediction markets for AD

Prediction markets for AD

Prediction markets for AD

Will Space’s timecube ad lead to >1 month of attic stay?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2026?

Will there be another major public-facing breakthrough in AI before December 31, 2024 [subjective - 1000M boost added]

Will a new dimension be added to Minecraft in 1.22 or 1.23?

Will AI be successfully editing Wikipedia unassisted, adding substantive original cited prose, before 2030?

Will the word "Rizz" be added to the OED online dictionary in 2024

Will the “Nebraska Right to Abortion Initiative” be added to the Nebraska constitution?