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Aaronson News
Prediction markets for Aaronson
Prediction markets for Aaronson
Will Anthropic employ Scott Aaronson before Spring 2025?
Jun 3, 6:13 PM
Mar 22, 6:59 AM
44.46%
chance
16
1346
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1118
895
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out any award for a discovery that dramatically weakens the possibility of scalable quantum computing?
Nov 27, 9:10 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
18.29%
chance
11
290
Option
Votes
YES
NO
993
983
Will Scott Aaronson ever pay out his $100,000 award for a demonstration that scalable quantum computing is impossible in the physical world?
Nov 27, 9:05 PM
Jan 1, 5:00 AM
6.98%
chance
13
333
Option
Votes
YES
NO
1140
963
Which Scott Aaronson AI world will come to pass?
Jan 30, 2:53 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
45
1834
Will Scott Aaronson write about Quantum Economics before 2026?
Nov 1, 5:24 AM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
11.19%
chance
4
103
Option
Votes
YES
NO
214
99
Which players will be submitted for the US Men's 2026 World Cup Roster
Mar 13, 7:43 PM
Aug 21, 3:59 AM
4
984
Will the alleged proof of P!=NP by Ke Xu and Guangyan Zhou be recognized as valid by 2050?
Apr 16, 1:47 PM
Apr 23, 8:59 PM
19.39%
chance
19
3921
Option
Votes
NO
YES
1017
635
Which AI future will we get?
May 1, 7:15 AM
Dec 31, 10:59 PM
37
2154
Is quantum mechanics computable?
Feb 26, 11:40 PM
Mar 28, 6:59 AM
94.28%
chance
8
550
Option
Votes
NO
YES
630
157
Will researchers discover unintended presence or utilization of steganography in LLM outputs by 2026? [Gwern's Idea]
Apr 23, 8:37 PM
Jan 2, 4:59 AM
36.87%
chance
5
40
Option
Votes
YES
NO
219
151
Articles
Latest stories
USMNT's Brenden Aaronson to Stay at Leeds United for Promotion Push after Positive Talks
Authors
5
23 days
Soccer
Sports
Paxten Aaronson Could Face Brother Brenden in Bundesliga Match This Weekend in Berlin
Authors
4
8 months
Sports
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