YES Network News

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)

Jan 24, 2:55 AMNov 6, 7:59 AM

19.03%chance

27801465439

OptionVotes

YES

12531

4711

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:08 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

54.54%chance

4318883

OptionVotes

YES

1057

930

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Dec 17, 7:05 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

33.42%chance

162892

OptionVotes

YES

7416

3786

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

Oct 23, 5:41 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

80.52%chance

18331830

OptionVotes

YES

930

916

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Nov 10, 4:57 PMJan 1, 5:00 AM

22.77%chance

932796

OptionVotes

YES

1810

1644

Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026?

Oct 22, 7:08 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

26.33%chance

30928

OptionVotes

YES

1523

1252

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:05 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

26.44%chance

241174

OptionVotes

YES

1021

977

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?

Jan 8, 10:48 AMMar 1, 10:59 PM

54.4%chance

321641

OptionVotes

YES

1152

723

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Mar 16, 7:07 PMDec 31, 10:59 PM

36.32%chance

254739

OptionVotes

YES

1091

919

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

Oct 26, 10:09 PMFeb 2, 7:59 AM

38.75%chance

222770

OptionVotes

YES

1634

234

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 1B views before 2027?

Jan 5, 12:58 AMJan 6, 10:59 PM

50%chance

232549

OptionVotes

YES

1050

932

Will relatively "offline" societies show signs of out-competing "online" societies by the end of 2027?

Dec 27, 6:26 PMJan 1, 5:59 AM

52.42%chance

421449

OptionVotes

YES

1133

839

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Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

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Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026?

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 20M views before 2025?

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2030? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Will the best public LLM at the end of 2025 solve more than 5 of the first 10 Project Euler problems published in 2026?

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Prediction markets for YES Network

Prediction markets for YES Network

Prediction markets for YES Network

Will AI be a major topic during the 2024 presidential debates in the United States? (please read criteria)

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2040? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]

Will GiveWell fund Community health promoters (eg those run by Living Goods) by 1st January 2027?

Will manifold markets still have >2000 daily active users in 2025?

Will the United States ban AI research by the end of 2037?

Will there be a widely accepted precise definition of mesaoptimizer by 2026?

Will a sentient AI system have existed before 2025? [Resolves to 2100 expert consensus]