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Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024?

May 28, 9:48 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

53.45%chance

8519253

OptionVotes

YES

1627

1380

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Jul 15, 7:56 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

59.92%chance

798060

OptionVotes

YES

1634

916

Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

Jul 12, 6:08 PMDec 31, 4:59 PM

48.25%chance

211255

OptionVotes

YES

1799

891

Will xAI have a model within 50 points of the leading model on the LMSYS leaderboard before May 2025?

May 27, 7:15 PMMay 2, 6:59 AM

40.12%chance

12998

OptionVotes

YES

1222

819

Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?

Jul 18, 7:53 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

66.08%chance

14404

OptionVotes

YES

1004

981

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

Jan 3, 1:03 AMJan 1, 7:59 AM

27.23%chance

262164

OptionVotes

YES

1118

921

Will xAI's Grok release a publicly accessible API by the end of 2024?

Nov 25, 4:47 PMJan 1, 6:59 AM

74.1%chance

171091

OptionVotes

YES

1266

876

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

Jul 15, 8:40 PMDec 31, 11:59 PM

48.61%chance

524799

OptionVotes

YES

997

972

xAI Grok will beat OpenAI's flagship model on HumanEval benchmarks by the end of 2024.

Nov 24, 4:13 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.18%chance

883815

OptionVotes

YES

2181

770

XAI researchers publish in a top physics journal

Jul 15, 5:46 AMJan 2, 7:59 AM

36.28%chance

441493

OptionVotes

YES

1119

920

Will xAI release an LLM with BIG-Bench score as good as GPT-4 Turbo before the end of 2024?

Jun 20, 2:09 AMDec 31, 11:59 PM

41.29%chance

302473

OptionVotes

YES

1266

705

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Mar 2, 8:16 PMJan 1, 11:59 PM

9.93%chance

13330

OptionVotes

YES

1330

912

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Prediction markets for XAI

Prediction markets for XAI

Prediction markets for XAI

Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024?

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

Will xAI have a model within 50 points of the leading model on the LMSYS leaderboard before May 2025?

Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

Will xAI's Grok release a publicly accessible API by the end of 2024?

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

xAI Grok will beat OpenAI's flagship model on HumanEval benchmarks by the end of 2024.

XAI researchers publish in a top physics journal

Will xAI release an LLM with BIG-Bench score as good as GPT-4 Turbo before the end of 2024?

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

Latest stories

Top stories

Prediction markets for XAI

Prediction markets for XAI

Prediction markets for XAI

Will xAI release a model that matches or surpasses GPT4 performance in 2024?

Will xAI Reach Major Lab Status?

Will Dan Hendrycks believe xAI has had a meaningful positive impact on AI alignment at the end of 2024?

Will xAI have a model within 50 points of the leading model on the LMSYS leaderboard before May 2025?

Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?

Will xAI develop a more capable LLM than GPT-5 by 2026

Will xAI's Grok release a publicly accessible API by the end of 2024?

Will xAI AI be a Major AI Lab by 2025?

xAI Grok will beat OpenAI's flagship model on HumanEval benchmarks by the end of 2024.

XAI researchers publish in a top physics journal

Will xAI release an LLM with BIG-Bench score as good as GPT-4 Turbo before the end of 2024?

Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?

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