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Russian Saboteurs Behind Arson Attack at Diehl's German Air-Defense Systems Factory
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Prediction markets for WSJ

Will the first WSJ article about Manifold mention assassination markets?

Apr 3, 4:53 AMJan 2, 12:59 AM

44.35%chance

15615

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1022

957

Will the WSJ, NYT, FT, or Economist create a market on Manifold by 2030?

Oct 29, 5:04 AMJan 1, 4:59 AM

20.73%chance

292048

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1755

675

Will the WSJ do an expose-style piece on Bryan Johnson before 2027?

Feb 11, 10:28 PMJan 1, 8:59 PM

62.8%chance

493

OptionVotes

NO

YES

316

287

Which of these Newspapers will publish an article mentioning Manifold before 2024 end?

Oct 10, 5:39 AMDec 31, 6:29 PM

9356

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

Nov 11, 7:11 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

20.4%chance

14956

OptionVotes

YES

NO

5673

4770

Will the US government open an investigation into Elon Musk's drug use by the end of 2024?

Sep 3, 3:53 PMJan 1, 4:59 AM

11.72%chance

7114837

OptionVotes

YES

NO

3098

481

Will a international AI watchdog body enter into force by May 30, 2027?

Jun 15, 1:27 PMMay 31, 4:00 AM

68.31%chance

16561

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1035

889

Will the Bilt Mastercard Remain Stable Through 2030?

Jun 18, 4:09 PMJan 2, 7:59 AM

42.21%chance

7415

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1170

855

Will an Iranian nuclear facility be bombed by 2025?

Dec 4, 8:39 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

39.47%chance

291199

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1079

752

Will Google suffer significant consequences over violating its ads standards around opt-out?

Jun 28, 10:55 PMJan 1, 7:59 AM

35%chance

21231

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1019

986

Will there be evidence of large scale data pollution operations by the end of 2025?

Aug 17, 9:26 PMJan 1, 10:59 PM

69.85%chance

23593

OptionVotes

NO

YES

1106

940

Will the TXSE (Texas Stock Exchange) be seen as a viable alternative to the NYSE/Nasdaq by 2028?

Jun 5, 2:17 AMJan 1, 5:59 AM

24.93%chance

281802

OptionVotes

YES

NO

1735

576

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